Dynamic Benefit Evaluation Of Shandong Eco-afforestation Project Loaned By The World Bank

Forest is the main body of terrestrial ecosystem,which has great ecological,economic and social benefits.As a province short of forest resources,Shandong Province has always attached great importance to the construction of forest resources.In order to speed up the afforestation process,Shandong Province participated in the World Bank-financed ecological afforestation project in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2016.After six years of ecological afforestation,66 915.3 hectares of forest were planted.In order to evaluate the benefit of the project and get its input and output clearly,this paper evaluates the forest resources constructed by the project by using the related benefit evaluation method,so as to define the comprehensive benefit and value of the project.Many scholars at home and abroad have made in-depth studies on the evaluation of forest resource benefits,and have also made measurements to a certain extent.However,it is rare to find articles on the dynamic evaluation of forest resources benefit with input.The main reason is that the measurement of input funds is not accurate.It can only evaluate the current situation of forest resources in the study area,but can not reflect the change of input-output benefit in a certain period of time.The project has clear investment funds and accurate data,which can effectively solve this problem.Based on the prediction of the growth of forest resources in afforestation project,this paper USES the methods of average annual net present value,input-output ratio and internal rate of return to dynamically evaluate and analyze the benefit changes of forest resources in the next 60 years.The study area covers 28counties(cities and districts)in 9 cities,including Dongying,Weifang,Jining,Tai'an,Weihai,Rizhao,Laiwu,Linyi and Binzhou in central and southern Shandong and Jiaodong Peninsula.The total area of afforestation in the project area is 36871.1 hm~2.The results show that:(1)The economic benefit of the project area is increasing with the increase of forest age,but the increase is not significant;the ecological benefit and comprehensive benefit are increasing with the increase of forest age,the increase is larger,but there is no maximum value in the research period.At the end of the period,the economic benefit was 4.06 billion yuan,the ecological benefit was 18.79 billion yuan,and the comprehensive benefit was 22.85billion yuan.The ecological benefit was about 46 times of the economic benefit.(2)The annual average net present value of three interest rates is calculated.When the interest rate is 0,the annual average net present value of the three benefits is in an increasing state during the research period,and there is no time node of maximum return.When the interest rate is 3%,the maximum profit can be obtained in 50 years only considering the economic benefit,and the average annual net present value is 190 million yuan per year.In the case of considering the ecological benefit and comprehensive benefit,there is no time node of the maximum profit in the study period.When the interest rate is 7%,the maximum profit can be obtained in 35 years only considering the economic benefit,and the average annual net present value is 0.7 billion yuan/year;when only considering the ecological benefit,the maximum profit can be obtained in 40 years,and the average annual net present value is200 million yuan/year;when considering the comprehensive benefit,the maximum profit can be obtained in 35 years,and the average annual net present value at this time is 3.11 billion yuan/year.One hundred million yuan per year.(3)From the input-output ratio method,it can be concluded that when the interest rate is zero,the input-output ratio of the three benefits is in an increasing state during the research period,and there is no time node of the maximum return.When the interest rate is 3%,the maximum return can be obtained in 35 years only considering the economic benefits,and the input-output ratio is 1:2.2;when only considering the ecological benefits,the maximum return can be obtained in 55 years,and the input-output ratio is 1:7.0;when considering the comprehensive benefits,there is no time node of the maximum return in the study period.When the interest rate is 7%,the maximum return can be obtained in 20 years only considering the economic benefits,and the input-output ratio is 1:0.9;when the ecological benefits are considered only,the maximum return can be obtained in 25 years,and the input-output ratio is 1:2.2;when the comprehensive benefits are considered,the maximum return can be obtained in 25 years,and the input-output ratio is 1:3.1 at this time.(4)Taking the IRR method as the measurement index,the IRR of the three kinds of benefits did not appear the maximum value in the research period.In the case of only considering economic benefits,the internal rate of return of economic benefits of the project reaches 13.2%at the end of the period;in the case of only considering ecological benefits,the internal rate of return of ecological benefits of the project reaches 16.9%at the end of the period;and in the case of considering comprehensive benefits,the internal rate of return of comprehensive benefits of the project reaches 19.6%at the end of the period.The main innovation of this paper is to combine the benefit evaluation of forest resources with the eco-afforestation project of Shandong Province,which is loaned by the World Bank,and to use the economic method to dynamically evaluate the benefit of this project in the next60 years.Combined with the investment value of the project,the relative return of the project can be calculated intuitively.The research results are helpful to evaluate the social practice value and significance of such projects.