Climate Change Impacts On The Potential Distribution Of Eogystia Hippophaecolus In China

Global warming will have a greater impact on ectothermic insects,therefore,combining the climate model with the simulated future climate data to predict the potential distribution of pests is becoming the research focus at home and abroad.Eogystia hippophaecolus(Hua,Chou,Fang,&Chen,1990)is the most important boring pest of Hippophae rhamnoides L.in the northwest of China.It is responsible for the death of large areas of H.rhamnoides forest,seriously affecting the ecological environment and economic development in northwestern China.Larvae of E.hippophaecolus damage the root and stem base of H.rhamnoides,Larvae of E.hippophaecolus damage the root and stem base of H.rhamnoides,causing the death of large areas of H.rhamnoides forest,seriously affecting the ecological environment and economic development in northwestern China.Studies to date have not reported on the potential distribution of E.hippophaecolus in China under climate change conditions.To clarify the potential distribution of E.hippophaecolus in China,the present study used the CLIMEX 4.0.0 model to predict the potential distribution of the pest using known biological data and known distribution data for E.hippophaecolus,and historical climate data(1981-2010)and simulated future climate data(2011-2100)for China.The El values derived from CLIMEX were introduced into the ArcGIS 10.1 software,and the potential distribution of E.hippophaecolus in mainland China under the historical climate conditions and future climate change was predicted using IDW.Climatic favorability levels,potential distribution range,and potential distribution area of E.hippophaecolus in China were then determined.The results show that E.hippophaecolus would be distributed mainly between 27°N-51°N and 740 E°134° E under historical climate conditions,with the area of favorable and highly favorable habitats may be 1.25 million km2 which accounting for 35.20%of the total potential distribution.Under future climate conditions,E.hippophaecolus would be distributed mainly between 270 N-530 N and 74°E-134° E.with the possibility of moving in a northwest direction.Under these conditions,the proportion of the total area providing a favorable and highly favorable habitat may decrease to about 33%.But the area of favorable and highly favorable habitats may be increase to 1.35 million km2,and the area of the total potential distribution may be increase too.The climatic favorability levels for E.hippophaecolus would increase slightly in the northeastern part of Qinghai,the area near the junction of Gansu and Qinghai,northern Xinjiang and the southern parts of Xinjiang,some parts of central and southern Tibet,eastern Inner Mongolia,and eastern and western Heilongjiang.El values would increase from 1 to 29 in those area.By contrast,climatic favorability levels for E.hippophaecolus would decrease slightly in most areas of Tianjin,the northern areas of Shandong and Shaanxi,the northwestern areas of Jilin and Gansu,the central areas of Xinjiang and Shanxi,central and southern Hebei,some areas of southern Tibet,southwestern Liaoning,the southern areas of Beijing,Heilongjiang,and Inner Mongolia,and the area near the junction of Inner Mongolia,Liaoning,and Jilin.El values would decrease from 1 to 42 in those area.These results will help to identify the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of E.hippophaecolus,thereby providing a theoretical basis for monitoring and early forecasting of pest outbreaks.