Prediction Of Forest Carbon Sink Potential In Heilongjiang Province

Forest is the most important component of terrestrial ecosystem,which has dual functions of carbon source and carbon sink.The 19th National Congress put forward higher requirements for ecological civilization.Climate warming has brought about a series of environmental changes.Carbon dioxide,as a major greenhouse gas,has attracted great attention and has become an important theme in international climate negotiations.All countries are actively taking carbon sequestration and emission reduction measures to reduce carbon emissions and increase carbon sequestration.This paper starts with the research of forest carbon sink and studies the development of forest carbon sink based on the potential of forest carbon sink,which has very important practical significance at present.Heilongjiang Province is one of the largest forestry provinces in the country.It is rich in forest resources and plays an important role in coping with climate change.Forest carbon sink has shown strong advantages in maintaining the ecological environment.Based on the theories of forest management,forest transformation and carbon dioxide emission space resources,this paper studies the potential of forest carbon sink,deeply analyzes the significant factors that affect carbon sink in the process of forest management,and seeks the specific path of forest carbon sink increase.Based on an accurate understanding of the current situation of forest regions in Heilongjiang Province,this paper first estimates the amount of forest carbon sinks in Heilongjiang Province and makes a comprehensive analysis of forest carbon sinks.Secondly,using Granger causality test,weak exogenous test and other structural identification methods,the relationship between forest carbon sink and various influencing factors is found.Thirdly,according to the identification results of influencing factors and the characteristics of forest carbon sequestration in Heilongjiang province,a comprehensive integrated prediction model of vector autoregressive model(VAR model),vector error correction model(VECM model)and autoregressive moving average model(ARMA model)is established based on the idea of integrated method to predict the forest carbon sequestration potential in Heilongjiang province and effectively improve the prediction accuracy.At the same time,the forest carbon sink potential of Heilongjiang Province in 2020,2035 and 2050 is analyzed based on the important time node of the country in the future socialist construction and the development status of Heilongjiang Province.Finally,the paper puts forward relevant countermeasures to promote the development of forest carbon sink in Heilongjiang Province from the aspects of politics,economy,society,culture and ecology.The new era puts forward higher requirements for the construction of ecological civilization.Therefore,the development of forest carbon sink is facing new opportunities and challenges,becoming an important topic for future forestry construction and social development Heilongjiang Province is rich in forest resources,and its powerful carbon sink function can produce huge economic benefits while playing its ecological function.Therefore,the research on forest carbon sequestration in Heilongjiang province has important theoretical and practical significance,which is not only conducive to enriching the theoretical system of forest carbon sequestration influencing factors research and prediction,but also provides new ideas for forest carbon sequestration potential prediction methods.It is also conducive to a comprehensive understanding of the forest carbon sink potential and its development constraints,promoting the implementation of effective management measures in forest management,and accelerating the process of related work to enhance the forest carbon sink potential.