Study On The Coordination Between Cultivated Land Intensive Use And Ecological Security In Lanzhou City

With the continuous advancement of industrialization and urbanization,the trend of nonagriculturalization of cultivated land is serious,and the contradiction between people and land has become more prominent,the cultivated land intensive is an inevitable choice to solve such problems.Becuase the current one-sided pursuit excessive intensive and neglect of the ecological environment,which result in a sharp deterioration of the ecological security of cultivated land.Therefore,solving the relationship between cultivated land intensive use and ecological security has far-reaching significance for protecting the ecological security of cultivated land.At present,the research on the relationship between cultivated land intensive use and ecological security is still in infancy,and there were little researchs on the coordination and the warning.Therefore,the paper used principal component analysis to analyze the driving factors affected cultivated land intensive use and ecological security in Lanzhou City from 1996 to 2017,analyzed the coordination state of the two systems by the coupling coordination degree model,The evolution of cultivated land intensification and the ecological security were predicted based on GM(1,1)model.The results showed:(1)The level of cultivated land intensive use showed a volatility trend as a whole in Lanzhou City from 1996 to 2017.The level of cultivated land intensive use had changed from extensive use to medium intensive use.Principal component analysis found that the level of cultivated land intensive use was mainly affected by the fixed assets investment,irrigation guarantee rate,agricultural output value and labor average output value.The agricultural land output value had a positive effect on the cultivated land intensive use.It showed that the output benefit played a major role in the process of the intensification of cultivated land.(2)According to the trend of cultivated land ecological security evolved in Lanzhou City from 1996 to 2017,the ecological security of cultivated land had evolved from sensitive level to relatively safe level.According to the analysis of impact factors,population density,per capita grain output and the proportion of primary industry to GDP were the main reasons that affected the level of ecological security in Lanzhou,which reflected the mutual feedback of stress,status and response in the ecological security of cultivated land.(3)Based on the coupling coordination degree model,the coupling degree and coordination degree of cultivated land intensive use level and ecological security from 1996 to 2017 were calculated in Lanzhou City.The coupling degree of the two gradually shifted from antagonistic to running-in,and the coordination state changeed from mild disorientation to reluctance coordination.The state indicated that the two were gradually tending to coordinate.Before 2011 year,the ecological security of cultivated land had been ahead of the intensive use of cultivated land.After that,the ecological security development speed of cultivated land had lagged behind the intensive use of cultivated land,which showed that there was a certain imbalance between the two.In the future,it is necessary to reduce the pressure on human activities for ecological activities,improve environmental governance capabilities,and coordinate the development of the two systems.(4)Prediction and analysis of cultivated land intensive and ecological security level.From 2018 to 2027,the level of cultivated land intensive use in Lanzhou City is on an increasing trend;while the ecological security of cultivated land is in a relatively stable state,the coordination degree between the two will increase steadily,and will entere the primary coordination stage.