Research On Film Copyright Value Evaluation Based On Real Option Model

With the accelerating globalization process,cultural competition has become one of the competitions in current society.Intellectual property rights have become one of the strategic resources for national development,as well as promoted scientific and technological progress and economic development.General Secretary Xi Jinping has proposed “advocating innovative culture and strengthening the creation,protection and application of intellectual property rights” in the report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the Boao Forum for Asia and the first China International Import Expo.Film copyright is an indispensable part of intellectual property and has a unique position.However,China's film and television drama copyright evaluation system has not been perfected,which has brought great inconvenience to the development of the film industry,even the entire intellectual property.Based on this situation,this paper uses the traditional income method and the more common real option method in the evaluation of intangible assets to evaluate the value of film copyright assets,hoping to bring a new idea to the evaluation of film copyright in China.First,this paper analyzes the domestic and foreign literature reviews about factors of movie box office and income forecasting model and the real option model,and draws the research purpose and significance of film copyright asset valuation,which can provide reference for the investment and financing of film works,as well as drive the economic development of the industry.Second,it introduces the concept of film copyright and its influencing factors,explains the concept of real options,and focuses on the advantages and disadvantages of traditional evaluation methods.Third,select the appropriate variables to construct a box office prediction model through the analysis of the factors affecting the box office income.At the same time,this paper illustrate the application of the B-S model in the real option model and describe the selection method of its parameters in detail.Finally,select cases to conduct empirical analysis and evaluate the value of their movie copyright assets.Based on the relevant data of 80 domestic films in the box office between 2017 and 2018,this paper builds multivariate regression model,which includes independent variable such as "Director & Screenwriter","Actor","Screenplay","Events","Movie Type","Series Sequel" and "Movies",dependent variable such as box office income.The actual box office income of 13 films released in 2016 and 2019 is compared with the predicted box office revenue to prove the applicability of the box office prediction model,then to predict the copyright value of the film.At the same time,bring the budget box office income into the real option model to calculate the parameters of the option model,and then derive the option value of the movie copyright.The copyright value of the movie is the sum of its use value and the value of the option,so the copyright value of the movie can be evaluated.Through the sensitivity analysis of the evaluation results,it is concluded that the box office income has a direct impact on the copyright value.This paper mainly evaluates the film copyright through the income method and the real option method.The multi-regression model is used to predict the value of a box office.The income method is used to determine the use value of copyright,and the real option method is used to derive the copyright option value,so as to estimate the movie copyright value.This study is expected to provide reference for film copyright evaluation and film investment and financing,provide ideas for improving evaluation and provide assistance for the development of the film industry.