Research On Phased Models Of Emergency Management Of Urban Stampede

With the rapid development of China's economy and society in recent years,and the continuous advancement of urbanization,the demand for the masses to organize and participate in various large-scale group activities is increasing.At present,the occurrence of urban stampede events is becoming more and more frequent.Especially since 2000,the high f'requency and serious consequences of urban stampede events in China have gradually aroused widespread concern of government departments and the public.Among them,the Shanghai Bund Stampede incident in 2015 is undoubtedly the most serious stampede event with the most serious social impact in China since the 21 st century.Emergency management of urban stampede is one of the most important topics in urban emergency management in China.The repeated occurrence of stampede events shows that the current emergency management system still lacks effective means to deal with this type of disaster,so it is urgent for us to carry out targeted research.This paper firstly combs the relevant theories of stampede events,and briefly expounds the emergency management theory of stampede events,and then the specific needs of each stage of emergency management are analyzed.It is believed that different demand characteristics are presented in each stage of urban stampede events.On this basis,the concrete models of various stages of emergency management are constructed,which are risk prediction model,data fusion model,decision consequence prediction model and emergency resource allocation model.These models correspond to the characteristics of each stage,and can meet the phased needs of emergency management of stampede events.Subsequently,we observed the development and response of the Shanghai Bund Stampede incident,and summarized many problems in the emergency response process,such as the lack of capabilities of processing and delivering emergency data,the insufficiency of risk prediction and early warning mechanism,and the lack of scientific emergency decision-making.On the one hand,and these problems confirm the existence of the phased demand for emergency management,on the other hand,they also show that there are shortcomings in the current urban emergency management system that are difficult to meet the emergency needs of each stage,and provide the possibility of introducing phased models.Based on the research above,this paper discusses the four stages of emergency management:prevention,preparation,emergency response and recovery,and carries out empirical research on the application of phased models in four aspects:risk prediction modeling,information and intelligence management,emergency decision-making assistance and emergency resource allocation in the Shanghai Bund Stampede incident.Then we explore the applicability of Poisson distribution model,gray prediction model and decision tree model in emergency management of stampede incidents.Through simulation,this paper believes that the application of those models can provide powerful analysis and auxiliary tools for all stages of emergency management,provide a powerful theoretical tool for the emergency management system to deal with the risk of urban stampede,and ultimately achieve more accurate and timely risk management.Finally,this paper puts forward some suggestions on the system optimization for the introduction of concrete models in emergency management.As for the emergency data system,it can be improved from three aspects:the database construction,the data processing mode and the usage mode;as to emergency plan system,it is necessary tostrengthen data analysis,historical case application and informationization of the plan;as for emergency management mechanism,we discuss the management perspective,management subject,platform co-management,and internal evaluation;as for the emergency legal system,it can be upgraded from the aspects of standard setting,legal positioning,and legal responsibility.In the end,we need to improve the emergency management assistant system,mainly in the aspects of information visualization,communication system and support system.