Hot Spot Analysis Of Terrorist Attacks Along The "One Belt,One Road" Country Based On GTD

With the profound changes in the international situation and the vigorous development of the Belt and Road Economic Corridor,more and more scholars begin to pay attention to overseas security issues,and terrorist attacks,as the main threat to our overseas security,have attracted more and more attention from domestic scholars.However,the domestic research on terrorist attacks has certain limitations,lag and macroscopic.This is mainly manifested in the domestic research focus on the description of the original data of terrorist attacks database,lack of data analysis and mining and the lack of depth and breadth of research.In view of this,this paper proposes a method based on hot spot analysis and Logistic regression analysis to explore the relationship between the characteristics and changes of hot spots of terrorist attacks and social economic,geographical and other factors.In order to verify the effectiveness of the research methods,this paper is based on the Global Terrorism Database(GTD)and takes Pakistan as an example.Based on the data of Pakistan from 2014 to 2017 in the GTD,this paper analyzes the clustering of terrorist attacks in Pakistan,identifies and produces the hot-spot map of terrorist attacks,evaluates the security situation of terrorist attacks in each county,and analyzes the characteristics of terrorist attacks in the hot-spot counties.The Logistic regression model of hot spot change process is established to analyze the relationship between hot spot change and geographic environment,social economic variables and the reasons of hot spot change.The conclusions are as follows:(1)The security situation of terrorist attacks in Pakistan presents a "one-line-one-plane" model,including "Northwest-Central-South-Southwest" longitudinal oscillation zone model and "East and Plane Agglomeration" model.(2)A total of 34 counties in Pakistan are hot spots of terrorist attacks,mainly distributed in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas,Khyber and Baluchistan Provinces,of which 8 are in a dangerous state of security,7 are in a state of shock,and 19 are in a high-risk state.(3)A total of 26 districts on the Pakistani side are at peace,of which 21 are in Punjab and 5 in Azad Kashmir.(4)Pakistani Taliban movement and separatist organization are the main attacking organizations,the number of attacks in hot spots is decreasing,but the casualties caused by a single terrorist attack are still serious,armed attacks and explosive attacks are the main attacking methods.(5)There is a strong positive correlation between the altitude and the change of terrorist attack hotspots;GDP growth and education level restrict the transfer of hot spots in terrorist attacks;The population density fluctuates with the change of terrorist attack hot-spots.Traffic convenience is one of the driving forces behind terrorist attacks.