| Terrorist attacks have had a serious trend spreading worldwide since the 1990 s.The 9/11 incident in the United States is a terrorist attack that shocked the world.With the deepening of globalization,no country can survive alone.This article aims to use statistical knowledge and the statistical software R language to explore the regional distribution characteristics of the number of world terrorist attacks,the number of deaths and external factors(including weapons,attack methods,and types of victims)in the past three years,and to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the risk of terrorist attacks from a national and regional perspective to identify countries and regions at high risk of terrorist attacks.Firstly,this article uses the Gini coefficient,Lorenz curve,and ABC classification(Pareto chart)to study the spatial distribution of the number of terrorist attacks,deaths,and external factors from 2016 to 2018 and to identify the hot spots and countries each year.The larger the Gini coefficient,the stronger the concentration.The results show that all Gini coefficients are greater than 0.6,which means that the frequency of terrorist attacks and the number of deaths are clearly concentrated,and this concentration does not change over time.Moreover,the concentration of deaths from terrorist attacks is stronger than the number of terrorist attacks,and the concentration of countries is more obvious than that of regions.The identified hotspots for the frequency of terrorist attacks and the number of dead are shown in Tables 4 and 6 of the text.Comparative studies have found that the high incidence of terrorist attacks does not necessarily correspond to the high death rate.Then the distribution characteristics of external factors are studied from the national point of view.The Gini coefficient results show that most terrorist attacks caused by external factors are also concentrated,and the high hot spots identified in the last three years are shown in Table 9,Table 11,Table 13.Based on the Gini coefficient analysis,the main assessment is the risk of terrorist attacks at the national level.This paper comprehensively uses factor analysis and BP neural network to assess the terrorist attacks in the world from 2016 to 2018,and mainly analyzes the terrorist attacks in 2018.On the basis of previous studies,a new risk assessment system consisting of 9 indicators is established,which is converted into two common factors by factor analysis: the event 's own risk factor and and the coping risk capability factor.According to the factor analysis model,the common factor score from 2016 to 2018 and the corresponding national terrorist attack risk level can be obtained.Based on factor analysis,the BP neural network will be used to make a quasi-assessment of the terrorist attack risk in 2018.The data of 24 regions in 209 countries in 2016 and 2017 obtained through dimensionality reduction will be used as a sample to build a model,which will then used to make a quasi-assessment of terrorist attack risk in 108 countries and 12 regions in 2018.The results show that compared with the 2018 pre-assessment results of factor analysis,only 3 low-risk countries are misclassified as medium risk,and the rest are all correct.All areas are classified correctly.The final results shows that the high risk of terrorist attacks is also concentrated,with 11 out of 108 countries rated as high risk,accounting for 11.11%,and 3 in high-risk areas account for 25%.The specific evaluation results are shown in Table 32 and Table 33.Compared with other studies,the results of this article are more comprehensive.Finally,on the basis of the research results of this paper,suggestions for the fight against terrorism based on the government and the public are put forward. |
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