Research On The Influence Of Cognitive Bias On The Analysis Effectiveness Of Public Security Intelligence

The cognitive bias caused by the inherent cognitive limitations of human beings will bring huge resistance to the analysis of public security intelligence.To explore the influence of cognitive bias on public security intelligence analysis is the basic work to improve the analysis effectiveness of public security intelligence,which can apparently help the analysis work changes from uncertainty to accuracy,from being subjective to objective,and eventually provide a better solution to the police decision-making.In order to clarify the influence of cognitive bias on the analysis effectiveness of public security intelligence,and to achieve the research purpose of reducing bias,the impact paths and manifestations should be clarified.Through the literature review,interview and questionnaire,this paper analyzes the paths and concrete manifestations of the influence of cognitive bias on the analysis of public security intelligence.Combined with theoretical research and empirical analysis,this paper explored targeted countermeasures to avoid cognitive biases which could help the public security intelligence analysts to improve effectiveness of their work.The study objective,main content and summarized conclusion are showing as follows:Firstly,the work analyzes the factors and media paths which impact the analysis effectiveness of public security intelligence through the perspective of cognition.Combined the early-stage literature review with the expert interview,there are 16 kinds of concrete manifestations for the three factors,which influence analysis effectiveness of public security intelligence.And it is proposed that cognitive bias,acting as not only a direct cause but also an intermediate link between exchanging resistances and external constraints.Play the dual role of primary and intermediary has a significant impact on the analysis effectiveness of the public security intelligence.Secondly,the study investigates the influence on analysis effectiveness of public security intelligence by questionnaire,and verified the proposed influence paths.The results showed that analysts were affected by cognitive biases in their work,and generally had 9 certain faulty tendencies or behaviors,such as interest-driven actions,empiricism,and selective information extraction.Data suggests that most analysts often suffer from 7 exchanging resistances and external constraints,such as poor resource integration and cultural constraints.In the meantime,all the influence paths established by the interview are supported and then the influence relationship is verified.