A Study On The Influence Of The Change Of Local Officials On The Upgrading Of Regionalindustrial Structure

Since the reform and opening up,China's economy has maintained rapid growth and rapidly become the world's second-largest economy,such a "China speed" has aroused widespread concern in the world.In recent years,foreign trade protectionism has risen,domestic economic development has slowed down and improved quality,China's economy has entered a period of shift in growth rate under the macro-control of the country.Economic transformation requires industrial upgrading,and industrial upgrading itself is the driving force of economic growth,so once the industrial structure deviates,there will also be many problems in the corresponding economic growth rate.In turn,it may lead to industrial surplus,low industrial concentration,unbalanced industrial development and so on.Under the current administrative system of our country,local officials hold a lot of political and economic resources.as representatives of power,local officials have different personal characteristics,and personal characteristics are the main orientation of their policy preferences.The upgrading of regional industrial structure will be affected by industrial policy,and the change of officials will lead to the increase of industrial policy discontinuity.Therefore,it is necessary to explore the impact of the change of local officials on the upgrading of local regional industrial structure,which has a positive guiding significance for local economic construction and political reform.It is conducive to promoting the reform of the official personnel system and reducing the discontinuity of local policies caused by the change of officials,thus promoting the further upgrading of the regional industrial structure.In this paper,the data of provincial party committee secretaries and municipal party committee secretaries and provincial and municipal related data from 31 provinces(municipalities directly under the Central Government,autonomous regions)and 283 prefecture-level cities in mainland China are selected,and the above data are empirically analyzed by using fixed effect model and differential GMM method.In the descriptive statistics of the official data,it is found that in the 14 years from 2003 to 2016,23.96% of the provincial party committee secretaries changed every year,and the average term of office was 3.96 years.On average,26.86 percent of the secretaries of prefecture-level cities change each year,the average term of office is 4.37 years.In addition,in the past 14 years,local officials in China have not shown a younger trend,but the academic qualifications of local officials have been significantly improved,and local officials have become more frequent exchanges in different places.Based on this,this paper empirically studies the impact of local official change on the upgrading of regional industrial structure from three aspects: local official change,official heterogeneity and official change type.The results show that:(1)The upgrading of regional industrial structure will be affected by the change of local officials,and there is a significant negative correlation between them.That is,the change of local officials will hinder the upgrading of regional industrial structure;(2)Official heterogeneity also has a significant impact on the upgrading of regional industrial structure.Among them,the term of office of local officials and the upgrading of regional industrial structure show a significant inverted U-shaped relationship,that is,the appropriate extension of the term of office of officials is conducive to promoting the upgrading of regional industrial structure,while too long a term will inhibit the upgrading of regional industrial structure.The educational level of officials has a significant positive impact on the upgrading of regional industrial structure,while the age of appointment of officials has a significant negative impact on the upgrading of regional industrial structure;(3)In terms of the type of change of officials,compared with the local promotion,The transfer from different places has a stronger promoting effect on the upgrading of regional industrial structure.Finally,according to the specific conclusions of the empirical analysis,combined with the current situation of local official change and industrial structure upgrading in China,this paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.