| The complexity of export technology,as an evaluation method that can measure the productivity level,product quality,trade competitiveness,and comparative advantage of a country’s export products,provides a new approach for international trade research.With the economic globalization and the improvement of the international division of labor system,countries around the world are competing to move towards the high-end of the value chain.The trade development model has gradually shifted from the original quantitative expansion model to the quality improvement model.The transformation of this model largely depends on the improvement of the level of export technology complexity.At the same time,the issue of population aging is prominent in various countries around the world,and China is also in a critical period of demographic transformation.The problems brought about by population aging have had an important impact on the development of China’s economy and trade.Therefore,this article focuses on the impact of population aging on the complexity of export technology,and deeply analyzes the impact mechanism of population aging on the complexity of export technology.This not only provides new ideas for China to cope with the current situation of population aging,but also helps to achieve the transformation of export trade from quantity expansion to quality improvement,and seeks a more advantageous positioning in international division of labor Provide reference for achieving sustainable trade development and the transformation and upgrading strategy of export trade.Firstly,this article reviews relevant literature on population aging and export technology complexity,and analyzes and compares the current situation of population aging and export technology complexity in representative countries such as China,India,the United States,and Japan.Secondly,this article theoretically analyzes the direct impact of population aging on the complexity of export technology,as well as the possible indirect impact on export technology complexity through technological innovation,savings,and industrial structure upgrading.Finally,this paper constructs a model based on the panel data of 79 countries from 2005 to 2020 to conduct an empirical test.The main conclusions of this article are as follows:(1)The aging population will have a significant adverse impact on the complexity of export technology overall;(2)After the robustness test is conducted by adjusting the sample interval and changing the explanatory variables,the benchmark regression results are still robust;(3)The group regression results show that the adverse impact of population aging on the complexity of export technology in developed countries is smaller than that in developing countries;Population aging will have a positive impact on the export technology complexity of capital intensive products,while for labor intensive products,population aging will have a negative impact;For export products with different processing levels,the aging population has promoted the increase in the technical complexity of finished product exports,while it has a significant adverse impact on the technical complexity of primary product exports;(4)The results of mechanism testing indicate that population aging will have an impact on export technology complexity through savings and technological innovation,while the impact through industrial upgrading is limited.By summarizing the research conclusions of this article,policy recommendations are proposed on how to respond to population aging and improve the complexity level of export technology. |
