Research On Network Cluster Risk Early Warning And Guidance Mechanism For Public Crisis Events

In the process of network interaction,opinion leaders spread negative emotional opinion to netizens based on the inter-group emotional effect and inter-group identification effect to trigger network clusters.How to establish an effective supervision and control mechanism to get rid of the management scientific decision-making faced in a complex emotional circulation environment The dilemma has become an urgent problem to be solved.At the same time,in the face of malicious inciting speech by opinion leaders in the network,negative emotion-oriented network clusters will resonate based on malicious incitement of speech,and gradually become the mainstream sentiment orientation in network clusters,forming network clusters with bad nature and violation of relevant laws.By systematically sieving and summarizing the research achievements of scholars at home and abroad,this paper takes the network cluster of public crisis events as the research object,uses the gray system theory and evolutionary game theory to analyze the evolution law of the online cluster behavior of public crisis events The relationship between the crisis response capabilities of government departments and online governance capabilities,combined with the typical cases of public crisis incidents-the entire process of Changchun Changsheng's "problem vaccine" and "Xingtai Dashui" incidents analysis The main contributions of the paper are as follows:(1)Established an evolutionary game model of the government,opinion leaders,and netizens during the continuous evolution of public crisis events,and learned from the evolutionary equilibrium conditions that the benign system of network cluster evolution caused by sudden public crisis events is x? 1,Y? 1,z?1,that is,under the preconditions that the government department has actively formulated regulatory policies and regulations,it adopts effective measures to use the official media to guide and refute rumors,so that opinion leaders choose to guide the decision benign,In the end,ordinary netizens do not participate in the ideal evolution mode of the network cluster,and at the same time reveal the evolution law of each stage of the network cluster's entire life cycle(2)Use the infectious disease model and method to construct the SIR model of netizens'emotional infection.Through the analysis of the process of emotional infection,it is found that the marginal utility of information heat and the spatial density of transmission diminishes,which will cause the proportion of vulnerable net-izens to decrease continuously with time.,And the size relationship between the proportion of susceptible netizens and the threshold has found the network control point with maximum utility;meanwhile,based on the theory of gray control system,the incomplete data is used to describe the entire system through the EGM(1,1)model.The essential law of data changes and the forecast of the future trends of the internal data of the system will eventually achieve efficient network cluster early warning.(3)The computer numerical simulation method is used to simulate the evolution of the online cluster behavior induced by the sudden public crisis,and the above conclusions are further verified based on the experimental results.According to the life cycle theory,the online cluster evolution behavior of sudden public crisis is divided into formation stage,development stage and extinction stage,and corresponding guidance mechanisms are proposed according to the evolution rules of each stage,so that government departments can effectively and timely control sudden public crisis events and It provides reference and reference for ensuring the healthy operation of the network societyIn this paper,by verifying the realization and effectiveness of the network cluster full life cycle early warning mechanism,and revealing the sufficient conditions for the multi-party participation in the network cluster to choose the ideal decision to make the system evolve to a stable state and the key variables that affect the evolution of the agent's behavior decision The network cluster of emergency public crisis events,early warning and guidance of emergency public crisis events provides a certain theoretical basis and decision support.