| In the era of integrated media,online media such as Micro-blog and Tik Tok have become important tools for the public to understand information and communicate with their advantages such as convenient operation and strong interaction.However,the convenience of online media has also accelerated the emergence of online public opinion.Dissemination and lagging regulatory information can easily exacerbate such bad phenomena as loss of control of public opinion and polarization of group emotions,which seriously threaten the network ecology and affect social stability.The early warning mechanism can determine the level of public opinion crisis,promptly initiate the emergency response to the public opinion crisis,and resolve the negative impact of the crisis.Therefore,it is urgent to study the early warning mechanism of the network public opinion crisis of emergencies.Based on this,this article is based on the three aspects of domestic and foreign online public opinion early warning research and judgment,online public opinion emergency response and random Petri net application.It outlines the elements of crisis early warning in three dimensions,and analyzes the internal and external dynamics of crisis early warning by using system dynamics,to analyze the mechanism of online public opinion crisis early warning of emergencies.Secondly,the operation of early warning research and judgment is explained from the three parts of public opinion information tracking and monitoring,processing and sorting and classified alarm.On this basis,four-dimensional research and judgment indicators of events,risks,derivatives and official information are extracted,and ANP is used to construct an ANP structural model for crisis early warning and judgment to determine Risk indicator level,formulate a "step-parallel" crisis early warning research and judgment process,so as to use the stochastic Petri net to construct the early warning research and judgment SPN model,and combine it with the Markov chain to determine the relationship between the state probability of the research and judgment system,which is the crisis warning Research and judgment provide scientific support.Then,the crisis emergency response is divided into three processes: police report,emergency response and aftermath treatment.Based on the content of the process and internal operation analysis,combined with the principles and steps of emergency response SPN modeling,the emergency network early warning crisis early warning SPN is constructed.From the perspective of avoiding the explosion of the state space of the Petri net,the crisis emergency response SPN model is equivalently simplified,to improve the performance analysis ability of the model.Finally,taking the “new outbreak in Beijing” as an example,the ABC classification method and ANP are used to assign weights to the indicators,and the SPN model of early warning research and judgment is used to analyze the risk indicators at all levels and their impact relationships,with a focus on grading Design early warning research and judgment start-up rules.Experiments show that on June15 th,the “Beijing Newly Emerging Epidemic” Internet public opinion crisis sounded a red alarm,which was consistent with the actual situation and proved the effectiveness of the research and judgment model.At the same time,the simplified model was constructed in line with the “Beijing.The actual crisis emergency response SPN model of "newly-occurring epidemic" uses the correlation matrix and Markov chain to verify its effectiveness,and analyzes the model performance from the three indicators of library busy rate,change utilization rate and average delay time,and proposes a perfect emergency response.Respond to the suggestions of the process. |
