The Study On The Cooperative Behavior Of Al-Qaida

Today,terrorism is a stumbling block hampering the world peace and development.With the development of the times,terrorism is constantly evolving.The cooperation and internationalization of terrorist organizations have brought great harm and challenge to all countries and people in the world.Such as the international infamous Al-Qaida have the cooperative relationship with a number of international terrorist organizations in personnel,capital and materials and other aspects.Al-Qaida is difficult to completely eradicate largely because of the many terrorist organizations' support behind it.The advent of the information age has made the terrorism means ever-changing and the whereabouts uncertain of the terrorist organizations.Together with the collusion between terrorist organizations,the world's anti-terrorism situation has become increasingly tense.This paper study the collaboration of Al-Qaida through the excavation of GTD2016 database and the United Nations database of Al-Qaida.The main contents of the study include two aspects.Research on the characteristics of Al-Qaida 's collaborative behavior based on single-factor collaboration and integrated factor collaboration(joint terrorist activities).Analyze the characteristics changes of cooperation of Al-Qaida with other terrorist organizations in the personnel and funds and others in different periods through statistical methods.Through the construction of a collaboration network of terrorist organizations based on joint terrorist activities,this paper uses the social network analysis to analyze the cooperative behavior of Al-Qaida in the perspective of time evolution,from the degree centrality,betweenness centrality and k-core and so on.Through the statistical analysis of geographical distribution of terrorist activities,this paper analyze the cooperative behavior of Al-Qaida in the perspective of spatial evolution.Based on the gray system prediction model,this paper forecasts the changes in the level of collaborative form of Al-Qaida with international terrorist organization and in the number of joint terrorist activities.Through the research,Al-Qaida gradually turned from material-level cooperation to personnel and personnel coordination.In the joint terrorist activities,Al-Qaida core began to initiate joint terrorist activities by itself to lead its affiliates to initiate joint terrorist activities,and the location of joint terrorist activities has also shifted from West Asia to South Asia and the Middle East.According to the prediction model,the cooperation level of Al-Qaida with other terrorist organizations in the personnel,arms and materials will keep steady.The level of financial cooperation decreased significantly,while the level of spiritual belief cooperation and the number of joint terrorist activities will increase substantially.Finally,puts forward the inspiration of China's anti-terrorism according to the results of this paper.