Analysis Of Regional Differences And Influencing Factors Of China's Elderly Consumption

Beginning in 2012,the number of elderly people aged 60 years and over in China increased at a rate of about 10 million people per year;by the end of 2015,it reached 222 million people.In the next 20 years.The level of China's aging population will reach its peak.The trend of China's aging population is accelerating,and the issue of aging has increasingly become one of the main concerns of China's economic growth and social development.The proportion of elderly consumers in consumer groups is increasing,and the impact of elderly consumption on the entire consumer market has gradually become prominent.Domestic scholars mostly study the distribution and influencing factors of China's elderly consumption from a micro perspective,mainly involving many variables such as income,education level,age,urban and rural,etc.However,few scholars have studied the influence of macro factors on elderly consumption,such as macro policy factors,regional factors.And few studies have focused on regional differences in elderly consumption.Therefore,this article uses the 2015 national survey data in the China Health and Pension Tracking Survey(CHARLS)micro-database to select variables for macro policy factors(whether pension insurance is covered,whether new rural insurance coverage is covered,whether medical insurance is covered,pension insurance income,new Agricultural insurance income),personal factors(gender,age,health status,elderly income),regional factors(east,central and western regions,developed regions and underdeveloped regions),to study regional differences in elderly consumption and their influencing factors,and propose corresponding factors policy suggestion.This article first explores the distribution of elderly consumption and their respective variables.The Spearman rank correlation test is used to test the correlation between elderly consumption,macro policy factors,personal factors,and regional factors.And the Kruskal-Wallis rank test is used to test whether regional factors have a significant impact on elderly consumption.Secondly,the Gini coefficient,Atkinson index,and Theil index are used to measure whether there is consumption inequality in the elderly consumption grouped by region.Then establish a structural equation model of the four latent variables of macro policy factors,personal factors,regional factors,and old-age consumption,and study the relationship between old-age consumption and macro policy factors,personal factors,and regional factors by observing the relationship between the variables.Then establish a mean regression model to study the impact of each variable on elderly consumption,and compare and discuss the impact of different variables on elderly consumption in macroeconomic policy factors.Finally,according to the non-parametric kernel density distribution which there are obvious spikes and right-side deviations of elderly consumption.A quantile regression model is established to capture the characteristics of elderly consumption levels in different quantiles to further accurately characterize the influencing factors of elderly consumption.At the same time,log the elderly consumption so that the dependent variable is basically symmetrical,and a single logarithmic model is established to compare with quantile regression.The research results show that: First,China's elderly consumption has consumption inequality which based on regional differences,and macro policy levels vary among different regions.The elderly consumption in the eastern region is higher than that in the central and western regions,and the elderly consumption in developed regions is higher than that in underdeveloped regions.Second,through the analysis of the model,the factors that have a significant effect on elderly consumption are: whether the pension insurance is covered,whether the new rural insurance is covered,the pension insurance income,the new rural insurance income,age,elderly income,eastern,central and western regions,developed and underdeveloped regions.Third,macro policy factors,personal factors,and regional factors have a positive impact on elderly consumption,and regional factors have a positive impact on macro policy factors and personal factors.Fourth,the impact of old-age insurance coverage on old-age consumption is greater than that of new rural insurance coverage,and the impact of new rural insurance income on old-age consumption is greater than old-age insurance income.Fifth,for the low-consumption elderly group,whether the coverage of old-age insurance covers the greatest degree of influence,and for the high-consumption elderly group,whether the new agricultural insurance covers the greatest degree of influence.Increasing insurance income has a marginal effect on consumption of the elderly with low consumption,which is higher than that on the group with high consumption.