A Study On The Impact Of Leaders' Bilateral Diplomatic Meeting On China's Manufactured Goods Trade With "The Belt And Road" Countries

As the growth of world economic slows and trade protectionism continues to heat up,China's current foreign trade development faces more complex environment,greater uncertainty and more risks and challenges.Under this situation,how to further promote China's foreign trade and cooperation becomes an important research topic.The core of diplomatic activities is bilateral diplomatic meetings between national leaders.Political relations affect economic development.The important role of government behavior and its governance in economic and social development is increasingly emphasized by scholars.Correspondingly,the "diplomatic meeting effect of leader" in political relations and economic policies is increasingly revealed by researchers.Based on this reality,this paper selects panel data from 2003 to 2017 and uses PPML method to empirically investigate the impact of bilateral leaders' diplomatic meeting on manufactured goods trade between China and countries along the "the Belt and Road".This analysis revealed a significant promoting effect of the leaders' diplomatic meeting on the manufactured goods trade between studied subjects.Further research shows that the impact of the leaders' diplomatic meeting on China's foreign trade differs by types of manufactured goods.The promotion effect of resource-based,low-level and intermediate-level manufactured goods is greater than that of high-level manufactured goods.For all kinds of manufactured goods,the diplomacy of the president plays a more promoting role than the diplomatic meeting of the premier of the State Council.However,there also exist differences in the effects of leaders' visits and receptions on the export and import of various manufactured goods.Therefore,China should attach importance to the role of leaders' diplomatic meeting when strengthening structural reforms and stabilizing the momentum of foreign trade development.In the meantime,China is supposed to strengthen foreign political ties,promote the win-win development of the "Community of Destiny" and strengthen close ties with countries along the "the Belt and Road" to cope with the rapid changes in the new world trade situation.