Building An Intelligence Early Warning Model Of Bus Bomb Attack Based On HSNRC Method

The safety of public transport vehicles is related to the safety of people's life and property and the normal production and development of the society.In recent years,with the spread of terrorism,criminal attacks showed growth trend of public transport vehicles,due to the openness of the bus,geographic coverage universality,using characteristics of the complexity of the make it vulnerable to attacks,the criminal closed space within the body bomb,not only caused a large number of casualties,also produce social panic.In the 21 st century,the emergence of biochemistry and nuclear threats has further increased the risk of bomb attacks on public transport.In order to guarantee the safety of public transportation effectively,a scientific intelligence and early warning system is needed.In this paper,on the basis of summarizing the relevant research results at home and abroad,combined with database data using global terrorism and open media resources for data aggregation,and to put forward by the rand corporation HSNRC homeland security risk characteristics description method was improved,on the basis of data statistics,factor analysis,the thought of model building,constructed to adapt to the characteristics of bus bombing case intelligence early warning model.The specific steps are as follows: firstly,effective statistics and identification of risk factors.This paper refers to the domestic and foreign research on bus bomb attacks,and analyzes various threat factors based on the case of GTD database and the research report of Israeli bus bomb attacks.Secondly,it analyzes the effectiveness of various improvised explosive devices,bus vulnerability and other lethal factors,and draws the matrix and chart of various threat factors.Finally,a questionnaire survey is used to conduct stakeholder assessment of the threat factors,score various factors based on computer software,build a model,and modify the model through the case of China.On this basis,the author puts forward some Suggestions to guide the safety protection of public transportation system.