Study On Risk Of Complex Product And System Innovation Project Based On Risk Identification, Assessment, Simulation And Control

Complex product and systems (CoPS) can be defined as high cost, technology and software intensive products, systems and networks, which are manufactured in small batches. CoPS play a vital role in the modern economy and society, but the risks in CoPS innovation are very high. The most urgent problem in Chinese CoPS development is how to identify and analyze the project risk systematically, While, Very little literature on risk management has focused on CoPS innovation. Therefore, the dissertation will try to research the risks in CoPS projects.With the purpose of providing suggestions for the risk management and control in CoPS projects, an analytic framework of risk management in CoPS innovation is developed based on previous literature. Furthermore, based on the characteristics of CoPS projects and the analytic framework, the characteristics of risks in CoPS projects and the key factors of risk control are analyzed from 4 aspects: key risk factors identification, risk generation mechanism, static risk assessment and dynamic risk simulation, with qualitative and quantitative research methods.The analytic framework for the risk management this dissertation puts forward shows that, in order to describe the characteristics of risks in CoPS projects, it is necessary to explain the risk generation mechanism based on key risk factors identification, and study the dynamic change of risks quantitatively based on static risk assessment. Hence there should have risk impact mechanism analysis in risk identification and dynamic risk characteristics analysis in the quantitative analysis of risk characteristics, which can establish an organic linkage among risk identification, risk assessment and risk control.29 key risk factors in CoPS innovation are found out by empirical study, which reveals the uniqueness of risks in CoPS projects. Many conclusions of study on risk factors in common technology innovation cannot be applied in CoPS innovation directly.The path relationships from risk factors to risk consequences in CoPS innovation, which describe the risk generation mechanism in CoPS projects, are explored with Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The results of data analysis reveal that not all risk factors have direct effects on risk consequences, and the changes of several risk factors influence the consequences via some other factors indirectly.With the combination of Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation and weighing method based on rough sets, the weights of every risk factor and the consequence measure, the possibilities of risk factors generation and whole project risk, and the levels of risk consequences are calculated and evaluated.Based on the analyses results mentioned above, a System Dynamic model that simulates the dynamic changes of risks in CoPS projects is constructed with the software of Venple5.3. Then the two key questions ("What to be controlled" and "How to control") in risk control are discussed using the simulation results, and the data for reference in problem solving Are given...