Global Technology Evolution And International Security Risk Assessment

As a General Purpose Technology and Enabling Technology,the technological tolerance and control of artificial intelligence make it possess the basic potential to lead the development of technology and promote the transformation of social forms.And the application of this technology has already exerted a certain impact on many social fields such as transportation,medical care,education,law,finance,and media.Therefore,AI is regarded as the core driving force of the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial change.Most studies also refer to the next round of scientific and technological revolution as the intelligent revolution.At the same time,the development and application of AI,while providing a strong impetus for the development of society,has also had a series of impacts on the international security landscape.According to the main areas of concern of international security,this article divides the application paradigm of AI in international security into two aspects,traditional security and non-traditional security.Starting from the traditional security field,the main concern is the threatening use and control of AI in military forces and strategic confrontations,which can be divided into two applications: general military forces and unconventional military forces.The non-traditional security field focuses on the application and specification of AI in social fields such as economics,politics and culture.Of course,international security is composed of many overlapping governance issues and systems,combined with the characteristics of the application of AI,which makes the cross-cutting of various applications of AI in international security landscape more prominent.Based on the practical application of evolutionary empowerment,AI can provide more effective maintenance and guarantee mechanisms for international security from traditional security,non-traditional security and the overlap areas.However,the application of AI also exists the possibility of exceeding expectations.From the perspective of traditional security,this article selects four analysis perspectives,specifically:(1)there is a possibility that the overallization of the AI competition field may break the strategic balance;(2)there is a possibility that the increase in utility and the reduction in competition profit and loss made by AI may aggravate the conflict;(3)The confusion and misjudgment of strategic analysis made by AI may affect the correctness of decision-making;(4)The lack of global AI regulations may also generate a series of endogenous technical risks.From the perspective of non-traditional security,this article also chooses five analysis perspectives,specifically:(1)embedded technology hegemony logic of AI may lead to developing countries being marginalized and forming new technological dependencies;(2)the strengthening of tech-geopolitics may lead to more negative factors in international competition;(3)capital power will continue to expand in the intelligent era;(4)the application of AI may lead to the paradox of productivity growth and the problem of imbalance in the distribution of technological dividends;(5)the application of AI may lead to the “Technical terror” phenomenon with more subtle threat factors such as data security,algorithm discrimination and technology risk may.Based on these analysis,this article thinks that the stability of national competition,the orderliness of social governance,and the stability of technology applications will suffer huge impacts.In particular,the imbalance of power caused by the development of AI and the transformation of the security pattern exist the risks of intensifying strategic competition among large countries,expanding the global strategic imbalance,and engendering larger and more intensive confrontations.The international security landscape will therefore face greater uncertainty and instability.It should be pointed out that the current security risks caused by AI have gradually emerged,and a comprehensive assessment of the opportunities and challenges brought by AI will be the key to solving this technical security paradox.Based on the above analysis and the background of the ongoing suppression of China’s science and technology development by some countries,this article puts forward three suggestions for China’s development strategy in the intelligent era:(1)continuously improve the strategic layout and make efforts to break the technical high wall,and improve the autonomy of technology to reduce external vulnerability in the security field;(2)establish a complete risk assessment mechanism and guarantee system,standardize the technical ethics and value orientation of the development of artificial intelligence,and coordinately prevent security risks from aspects such as security management;(3)actively promote the co-construction of global technology development and governance framework construct a scientific,systematic,and forward-looking AI standard specification system,and work hard to promote the formation of an internationally recognized governance framework and a coordinated governance mechanism for technological risks.