The Empirical Study Of Demographic Structure Change On Household Consumption

Since the implementation of family planning,demographic structure changed dramatically in China.With the falling consumption ratio,expanding domestic demand becomes the strategic direction of economic development in the new normal in China.As the problem of aging population and unbalance sex ration is becoming more and more severe,the population policy of Chinese government has changed.From “Double Alone Two Child Policy” to “Separate Two Child Policy” and widespread Two Child Policy,population problem has arise many scholars' attention.Using the provincial panel data in the year of 2001~2014,combining one-step difference GMM,empirical study of the effects of rural demographic structure on household consumption in northwest five provinces showed that : pre-rural household consumption have a significant negative effect on immediate consumption;both rural children dependency ratio and rural old dependency ratio have a significant positive effect on household consumption.The result support life-cycle hypothesis.In addition,the level of urbanization has a negative correlation with rural household consumption.Using panel vector auto-regression to study the connection between demographic structure and household consumption in rural area of northwest five provinces,the result support the conclusion of one-step difference GMM.