Study On The Influence Of Population Aging On Household Consumption Based On Quantile Regression Model

In recent years,household consumption has always been a topic of concern for the national economy and people’s livelihood;especially in the study of social development dynamics.As one of the three carriages that drive GDP,household consumption has always been a topic of intense research.The factors affecting household consumption are complicated.This paper uses the method of quantile regression to explore the factors affecting household consumption in the context of population aging,and collects valid data by using the China Family Tracking Survey(CFPS)data,to carry out systematic research.Based on the CFPS2014 data,the quantile regression model analysis method is used to estimate the impact of aging population on household consumption.The national household consumption and regional household consumption are studied.The results show that from the national data,the proportion of children accounts for Compared with the structure of household consumption that is conducive to low-quality living standards,while the proportion of the elderly population is more advantageous than the household consumption of high-quality living standards.Therefore,it is recommended that the relevant government departments should help the household consumption of low-quality living standards.The expansion of the proportion of children and increase the consumption of children,which has great benefits for the upgrading of the consumption structure of the family,and is conducive to the upgrading and development of household consumption with low quality of living;family size is an important determinant of household consumption expenditure.The scale effect is very significant for household consumption at all levels,but it is more favorable in household consumption of medium quality living standards,so the government should be active in order to increase the number of middle-level families.Family size that guides medium quality living standards the expansion is not only conducive to the upgrading of the household consumption structure of the medium-quality living standard,but also to the increase in the number of households at this level,which is conducive to a more reasonable and more stable social structure;the health status of household heads and the increase in per capital net income are not conducive to the upgrading of household consumption structure at all levels,the increase in the health status of household heads and the per capital net income is the most unfavorable to the upgrading of the consumption structure offamilies with high quality of life.Therefore,families at this level should pay more attention to improving the proportion of the elderly and increasing the total expenditure of the family.This will make the upgrading of the household consumption structure more favorable,and the related disadvantages should be avoided.Therefore,it is recommended that the government implement an income distribution policy that raises the wage level of low-income groups,improve the social security system,improve the education system at the relevant level,improve the consumption level of households at all levels,and rationalize the consumption structure of households.All of these will be beneficial to China’s economy to gradually shift from investment to consumption-led growth.In sub-regions,urban household consumption is very different from rural household consumption,and factors affecting urban household consumption development are more than factors affecting rural household consumption development,the upgrading of consumption should be easy to operate indicating that in the development of rural household consumption,and the government should pay more attention to the upgrading of rural household consumption.Households with low-level living standards,regardless of urban families and rural families,have different disadvantages for each family.However,in households with high living standards,regardless of rural households or urban households,the effect of household consumption is all the same.Combining the characteristics of the factors affecting urban household consumption with rural household consumption,it is not difficult to find that families with low living standards and families with medium living standards should pay attention to the two factors of children’s proportion and family size,because in these two families,the proportion of children and the size of the family are both favorable factors affecting the development and upgrading of household consumption,indicating that in the families with low living standards,the upgrading and development of household consumption cannot be separated from the recruitment of personnel and the expansion of family members,the government and Social-related departments should consider the expansion of family members when they help these families.This is not only conducive to the development of household consumption,but also conducive to the improvement and development of family living standards,and is conducive to the future when the social population is aging.These powerful families can be used to dilute the adverse effects of an aging society.When thegovernment formulates its income policy or raises the per capital income of the family,the government should proceed from a more equitable perspective.Because of the factors affecting urban household consumption,per capital household income is a restraining effect on household consumption,but it is a favorable factor affecting rural household consumption.Although it hampers the development and upgrading of urban household consumption when encouraging per capital income,it is also acceptable in terms of narrowing the urban-rural gap.