The Influence Of Population Age Structure On Housing Demand

Since China's cancellation of the welfare housing allocation system in 1998,the Chinese housing market has achieved rapid development.After decades of golden period development,the real estate industry has gradually become a pillar industry for national economic growth.Residential needs first exist as the basic needs of the family,while people as the main body of the purchase,the residential market is bound to be affected and constrained by factors such as the population structure.At the same time,our country's reproductive policy has undergone major adjustments in recent years.The comprehensive release of the second-child policy and the aging of the population in 2016 have had a major impact on the age structure of the population in China.Therefore,this paper attempts to analyze the age structure of the population in order to Examine its impact on residential demand.This paper takes the influence of population age structure on housing demand as the research topic.After clarifying the domestic and foreign literature,it reviews the concepts and basic theories related to population and housing,and elaborates the development of China's housing market and the transformation of the age structure of the population.,And theoretically analyzed the relationship between the two.Secondly,on the basis of theoretical analysis,with reference to the results of previous scholars,an empirical analysis model was established.The variables and data selected by the empirical research institute are described and statistically described.This paper uses the fixed effect model and panel GMM method to empirically analyze the data from 31 provinces,cities and autonomous regions in China from 2002 to 2015.Firstly,it analyzes the national sample data.The research results show that in the age structure of the population,the child dependency ratio has no significant effect on housing demand.Compared with the positive impact of housing demand,an increase in the proportion of older people will promote housing demand;secondly,the analysis of sample data at the regional level in East,Central,and Western regions will show that the ratio of old-age dependency ratio in the eastern region will promote the demand for housing.Inter-generational income transfer is mainly common in the eastern region,but not in the central and western regions.Children's dependency ratio is not significant in all regions,Mainly due to the fact that it will become a residential consumer after 20 years.Finally,based on the conclusions drawn from quantitative research,combined with the actual situation of China's housing market,put forward targeted policy recommendations to promote the healthy and sustainable development of China's real estate market.The specific policy recommendations include:according to the characteristics of the age structure of the population,attach importance to the housing needs of the elderly;improve the affordable housing system to meet the residential needs of residents;formulate an active population growth policy to ensure the stability of the housing market demand To curb housing investment demand and reduce inequalities in urban family housing.At the same time,aiming at the deficiencies of this study,we propose the direction of further research.