Research On The Impact Of The Population Age Structure On The Precautionary Saving:Evidence From Chinese Urban Residents

Chinese household savings rate has always stayed at high level,and residents' excessive saving behavior will inevitably restrain their consumption expenditures and thus constrain economic development.In order to reduce the residents' savings rate,the motivation of the residents' savings behavior must be found.The precautionary saving theory puts forward that the residents will generate savings motives in the face of uncertainties in the future.Since the reform and opening up,China has carried out market-oriented reforms in housing,education,medical care,and pensions,which have created huge uncertainties in the relevant areas of expenditure,coupled with amplifying effects of changes in the age structure of the population,uncertainties are greatly strengthened.Therefore,it is necessary to study the high savings of Chinese residents in this context based on the theory of precautionary savings.This paper theoretically analyzes the consumer's consumption and savings decisions under uncertainty,and then respectively analyses two types of impact mechanisms of the influence of changes in population age structure on the precautionary saving in China from the dual-risk utility perspective according to the population age structure itself whether be regarded as the source of risk.The following conclusions were obtained through empirical analysis:(1)the effects of the old-age dependency ratio produced by itself on the precautionary saving motivation is not significant,but its interaction influence of expenditure uncertainty is significant,and the weakening of society's ability to support older people will increase the impact of uncertain spending on preventative savings.The uncertainty of th child-age dependency rate and its interaction with the uncertainty of consumer spending are significant and negative.The increase in child-age dependency rate will increase the household's expenditure demand,thus the incentive for preventive saving will be restrained;(2)the child-age dependency rate will lead to a significant increase in preventive savings by increasing the exposure risk of related expenditures(the second type of influence mechanism).However,the change in old-age dependency ratio has no significant effect on preventive saving due to the existence of the effect of enhancing the overall social consumption propensity;(3)because the security system in economically developed areas is more complete,the second type of influence mechanism of their age structure of population is less significant,while the economically undeveloped area is opposite.Finally,this paper proposes some countermeasures to alleviate the precautionary saving motives of urban residents in China.