The Spatial Evolution And Agglomeration Effects Of Population A Nd Economy In China

Since the 21 st century,China's economy has continuously developed while population growth has begun to slow down.The pattern of population and economy has undergone a drastic change.The traditional distribution of population and economy shows the trend of "low in the west and high in the east",but the population and economic distribution in 31 provinces and cities in China are constantly changing.Therefore,to study the evolutionary characteristics of China's population and economic space and its agglomeration effects.On the one hand,it can explore the problems existing in China's regional population and economics patial distribution,and understand the general trend of China's population flow and economic transfer.On the other hand,by analysing the concentration of population and economy in various regions of China,we can intuitively understand the population and economic aggregation levels in different regions,find out the population and economic agglomeration centers,optimize the regional population and industrial structure,plan overall population and economic development goals,a nd promote The coordinated development of regional population and economy proposes policy recommendations and has practical significance.This paper first summarizes the relevant literature on the spatial distribution and evolution of population and economy,and combs the relevant theories of population economics and regional economics.Subsequently,population and economic data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2001 to 2016 were used to study the current situation of population and economic spatial distribution through geographic concentration method,inconsistent index analysis and ArcGIS mapping.Secondly,the center of gravity was used to calculate the center of gravity of population,GDP and tertiary industries,and the evolution trajectories of each center of gravity were drawn.The evolution of population and economic center of gravity was analyzed.Third,spatial autoregressive analysis using GeoDa explores the agglomeration effect of the overall and local population and economy in China.Finally,using the results of the preceding analysis,we summarize the influencing factors of the evolution of population and economy.The results show that:(1)Spatial distribution of population and economy is inconsistent.Population and economic agglomeration show the trend of "low in the west and high in the east".However,the degree of population-economy matching shows obvious regional differences.The population concentration in Anhui Province and Henan Province between the western region and the central-eastern region is higher than that of the economic agglomeration.The population and economic agglomeration in central Hubei and Hunan provinces and other regions Relatively coordinated,the degree of economic aggregation in the southeast coastal areas is higher than the degree of population aggregation.(2)Population and economic spatial evolution show diversity.GDP center of gravity,three industries center of gravity and population center of gravity are not in the same direction.The population center of gravity deviated 4.15 km to the southeast,and the center of gravity of GDP shifted 60.68 km to the southwest.The center of gravity of the primary industry shifted 59.91 km to the northwest and the center of gravity of the secondary industry shifted 120.12 to the southwest km,and the tertiary industry center of gravity is offset by 38.86 km in the direction of southwest.(3)The influencing factors of population and economic spatial evolution can be divided into land area,geographical location,resource endowment,industrial agglome ration,traffic conditions,specialized division of labor and the region's own reasons;the reasons for the mismatch between population and economic space can be divided into population Mismatch with economic agglomeration,policy mismatch and Matthew effect.(4)The spatial agglomeration effect of population,economy and population economic matching in 31 provinces and cities in China is obvious.In 2001-2016,the population of Xinjiang Autonomous Region,Tibet Autono mous Region,Qinghai Province,Gansu Province and Sichuan Province had low and low concentration relations,while there was a high concentration of agglome ration in Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province.In Xinjiang Autonomous Region,Tibet Autonomous Region,Qinghai Province,Gansu Province and There is a high-low concentration relationship in Sichuan's economy,and a high concentration relationship between Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province.There is a low-low concentration relationship between population and economy in Sichuan Province,a low-high concentration relationship in Hebei Province,a high-low concentration relationship in Guangdong Province,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai have a high concentration relationship.This paper uses different methods to analyze the spatial distribution,evolution and agglomeration effects of China's population and economy.However,when analyzing the influencing factors,it focuses on qualitative analysis and lacks the quantitative analysis process such as regression analysis.I have always hoped to construct the spatial autoregressive model and the space lag model to explore the influencing factors of the population and the economic space.However,the index of spatial influencing factors is difficult to be determined and the model is difficult to construct.Therefore,this method has not been completed yet and hopes to find suitable and reasonable indicators in the future to explain the reasons of population and economic spatial distribution for further research.