Research On The Spatial And Temporal Evolution Pattern And Coordinated Development Of Population And Economy In The Urban Agglomeration In Central Guizhou

Population and economic distribution are important subjects in the study of population geography,economic geography,regional economics and other disciplines.The coordinated development of population and economy is an important part of realizing regional modernization.Under the background of regional integrated development and new urbanization,urban agglomeration has become an important growth stage of regional economic development,and it is also an important carrier for the study of the temporal and spatial evolution pattern of population and economic distribution.The urban agglomeration in central Guizhou is an important part of the urban agglomeration in southwest my country,and it is an important area for Guizhou Province to realize the strategic positioning in the No.2 document of the State Council.This paper takes the central Guizhou urban agglomeration as the research area,and studies the spatial and temporal evolution and spatial aggregation characteristics of its population and economy in the county area,as well as the distribution coordination degree of the two.It is of great significance to improve the primacy of the capital city of Guizhou.This paper selects the county population and economic data of the urban agglomeration in central Guizhou from 2005 to 2020,and uses IDW interpolation,spatial autocorrelation,standard deviation ellipse,and offset-sharing method to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and spatial evolution of the population and economy in the central urban agglomeration of Guizhou.Aggregate features.Then,based on the geographic concentration and inconsistency index,the population and economic distribution coordination degree model was constructed,and the spatial and temporal differences of the county population and economic distribution coordination degree were analyzed.Finally,the corresponding influencing factor indicators of the coordination degree of population and economic distribution in the urban circle of central Guizhou in 2020 are selected,and correlation analysis,factor analysis and two-order least squares regression are used to analyze the internal influencing factors of its changes,and the main conclusions are as follows:（1）From 2005 to 2020,the spatial distribution of population and economy is uneven,and the gap between counties is relatively obvious.The population distribution of urban agglomeration in central Guizhou generally showed a pattern of dense north and sparse south.The distribution characteristics of population density are dense in the middle and sparse around,dense in the southeast and sparse in the northwest.The total county GDP of the urban agglomeration in central Guizhou has changed significantly in different stages,and the distribution pattern is roughly high in the north and low in the south,high in the middle,and low in the east and west.The spatial distribution characteristics of per capita GDP and population density have a certain consistency,the high-value areas of the two are relatively concentrated in the central and eastern northern regions,and relatively scattered in the western regions.（2）From 2005 to 2020,the population and economy of the urban agglomeration in central Guizhou are more concentrated in the central and northeastern parts of the country.The results of standard deviation ellipse analysis show that the development direction of population and economy both show strong centripetal force in the east-west direction,and have a tendency to expand in the south-north direction;The results of spatial autocorrelation analysis of population and economy also show a certain similar law.Both low-low agglomeration areas are distributed in the southeast,and high-low agglomeration areas are mainly distributed in the middle.The Moran’s I index of population and economic distribution showed an overall upward-downward trend,dropping from 0.3110 and0.6054 in 2005 to 0.2600 and 0.3203 in 2020;The results of the shift-share method analysis found that the areas with the most significant growth in population and economy with a positive shift were mainly distributed in the middle of the urban agglomeration.（3）From 2005 to 2020,the inconsistency index of population and economic distribution of urban agglomeration in central Guizhou has obvious spatial differentiation characteristics,which is generally manifested in that the economic agglomeration in the core area of the urban agglomeration and the northeastern part of the urban agglomeration is larger than the population aggregation,except for the northeastern urban agglomeration.For population agglomeration is greater than economic agglomeration.The distribution of high-quality coordinated areas and primary coordinated areas of population and economic distribution in the urban agglomeration of central Guizhou shows the characteristics of "center-periphery",the overall number of moderately coordinated and well-coordinated areas is relatively low,with the largest number of moderately coordinated areas in 2020,followed by the number of high-quality and primary coordinated areas.（4）In 2020,the coordination of population and economic distribution in the urban agglomeration in central Guizhou will be affected by many factors.The regression results show that rural population employment,social medical security,industrial development and income conditions have a greater impact on the coordination of population and economic distribution.And in the context of karst natural environment,the degree of terrain relief also has a profound impact on the coordination of population and economic distribution.