An Empirical Study On The Impact Of Migrant Population And Industrial Structure On Housing Prices

Since the reform and opening up,China’s real estate market has been developing rapidly and the housing price also has been growing quickly.Excessive and overheated housing prices not only affect the steady development of the national economy but also raise the social problems of hard to purchasing building and marriage.Therefore,what kind of targeted measures should be taken to restrain the overheating of housing prices and maintain the smooth and orderly development of the real estate market has become the urgent problem for the government and many scholars.China began to regulate the real estate market shortly after the marketization of the housing market,and formulated several policies to control the housing price.Many scholars also look at the influence factors of housing prices from different angles to make the housing price return to rationality,but the overall effect is not obvious.With the rising price of house,at the same time,the foreign population and industrial structure of China’s cities are constantly increasing.The impact of foreign population and industrial structure on housing prices is also increasing.In this regard,this paper from the perspective of foreign population and industrial structure,to explore the impact of foreign population and industrial structure on urban housing prices.In this paper,the related factors affecting the housing price are summarized,and the related theoretical literatures from the outside population and industrial structure are summarized.Secondly,the development course and development status of foreign population,industrial structure and housing price are reviewed.Based on both theoretical and practical basis,by gathering 2005-2015 annual data of 32 provincial cities in China with foreign population,industrial structure,housing average selling prices,land prices,GDP,public spending on services,per capita disposable income and other indicators data,build simultaneous equations with three stage least squares(3SLS)to respectively to different level cities of panel data regression respectively;The effect of the foreign population and industrial structure on the housing price in different cities is tested empirically.In particular,the foreign population and industrial structure have positive promoting effect in different levels of cities,and the impact on the prices of cities in different grades is obvious.Among them,the foreign population and industrial structure have the most significant impact on the housing price of first type cities,the second and the third types of cities are significantly lower or less significant.Based on the theory and practice and combined with the actual situation of different grade cities,some policy suggestions are given: controlling the scale of foreign population in first type cities and allocating resources rationally to subordinate cities to promote the diversion of foreign population to the second and third types cities.Second and third type cities should to improving the public service resources investment and infrastructure construction,undertaking industrial transfer and cultivate local specialty industries to increase employment to enhance the attractiveness of foreign population.It is not only to promote the balanced development of the real estate market of different grades by guiding the foreign population to the second and third type cities but also alleviate the pressure of the foreign population on the housing prices of the first type cities.In the aspect of industrial structure,the industrial structure to promote the rise in housing prices is the result of objective economic laws,cities at all levels in the study of urban housing prices can be the normal structure of the industrial structure after the removal of the price check whether there are other non-normal factors led to rising house prices.