Study On The Relationship Between Industrial Structure,Population Flows And Housing Prices

In the past 40 years of reform and opening up,China's real estate market has undergone earth-shaking changes under the influence of the continuous improvement of China's economic level,the optimization and adjustment of government policies,and other comprehensive factors.Real estate prices have also continued to climb.From 1998 to 2017,the average selling price of China's overall residential commercial housing increased from1,854 yuan per square meter to 7,616 yuan per square meter,and prices in all cities have risen without exception.The persistent rise in house prices has made "house slaves" a hot word.The increase in housing costs has increased people's living pressure and is prone to social unrest.This paper focuses on the impact of industrial structure and population mobility on housing prices.Considering that there are regional differences in the impact of industrial structure and population movements on housing prices,and that there is a reciprocal relationship between industrial structure,population mobility and housing prices,After combing the relevant literature,this paper expounds the mechanism of the influence of industrial structure and population flow on housing prices,and combs the mutual influence between the three.Then the influence mechanism of industrial structure on housing price and population flow on housing price is expounded,and the current situation of industrial structure,population flow and housing price in China is analyzed.The paper further makes an empirical study on the industrial structure,the impact of population flow on housing prices and the relationship between industrial structure,population flow and housing prices.For the former,this paper establishes a panel data model.The data of 257 prefecture-level cities in China between 2006 and 2016 were selected for description analysis,fixed effect panel data testing,and dynamic GMM testing.First,an empirical study was conducted on the overall industrial structure,population flow,and housing prices in the country.Further tests are then carried out in the Eastern,Central,Western and North-eastern regions.The time series VAR test analysis was carried out for the latter to select relevant variables from 1997 to 2016.The results show that the industrial structure and the population flow rate have a very significant positive impact on the housing price,and the population flow rate has a negative impact on the housing price increase.Overall,the rate of population movement has fluctuated and declined over time,meaning that more and more people tend to settle down rather than move repeatedly in different cities.From the regional point of view,the most significantfactor to the eastern region is the upgrading of the industrial structure;The most significant factor affecting the housing prices in the central region is the level of urbanization;The most obvious factor affecting the housing prices in the western region is the rate of population flow;Housing prices in the Northeast are mainly affected by the rate of population flow,industrial structure and urbanization rate.In terms of the relationship between industrial structure,population mobility and housing prices,in the short term,the impact of housing prices on the industrial structure and the industrial structure on housing prices are all negatively correlated,and in the long term,they are all positively correlated.The industrial structure and housing prices have no obvious impact on the rate of population flow,and the rate of population flow has a negative impact on the industrial structure and housing prices.At last,according to the conclusion of the research,the paper puts forward some suggestions of real estate policy that can be used as reference for promoting differentiated industrial structure,encouraging floating people to return home,accelerating urbanization and cracking down on real estate speculation.