Research On The Impact Of Industrial Structure And Population Concentration On Housing Prices In Second-tier Cities

In recent years,due to the excessively rapid growth of liquidity,the adjustment of the urbanization spatial structure and the defect of the investment channel of the real economy,housing prices in super first-tier cities and many second-and third-tier cities have soared,leading to the growth of housing prices in some surrounding cities.At the same time,when studying the factors that affect house prices,many scholars have found from different perspectives that while housing prices are increasing,the industrial structure of cities in my country is gradually upgraded and the population concentration is gradually increasing.The difference in the real estate market between cities has gradually become larger.The capital and talent attractiveness of super first-tier cities and first-tier cities have led to unequal regional factor allocation,and more resources have flowed to advantageous cities.With regard to the "urban disease" problem,second-tier cities will be the key cities for China's resource transfer.Based on the above reasons,this article intervenes from the perspective of industrial structure and population aggregation to explore how the two affect the housing prices of second-tier cities.When sorting out the literature,this article first summarizes the factors affecting housing prices studied by scholars at home and abroad,and second,focuses on the impact and mechanism of industrial structure and population aggregation on housing prices.Subsequently,a history and status quo study was conducted,reviewing the population size,population density,and the development process and status of the three major industries from 2003 to 2017.In the empirical part,by collecting data from 30 second-tier cities from 2003 to 2017,population density is used to represent population aggregation,secondary and tertiary industry ratios represent industrial structure,average residential sales price,land price,GDP,fixed asset investment ratio,Per capita disposable income is used as a control variable,a panel data model is constructed,and fixed-effect estimation and two-stage least squares method are used to regress panel data of different grade cities,and the industry is further subdivided,using two-step system GMM estimation to study different industries The impact on housing prices in second-tier cities,and taking into account the differences in time series;empirical test of the impact of population aggregation and industrial structure on housing prices in cities of different grades,and at the same time,the industry is subdivided,divided into liveliness,productive and public service industries The impact of service industries on housing prices.The results show that population aggregation and industrial structure among cities at different levels have significant differences in housing price trends in second-tier cities.Among them,population aggregation has the most significant positive impact on the housing prices of the second and third types of cities,and has a lower significance for the first type of cities;the industrial structure has the most significant positive impact on the housing prices of the first type of cities.After empirical analysis of the model and the actual situation of cities of different grades,the article gives some policy suggestions: control the population aggregation of the first-class cities,improve the economic development level of the second-and thirdclass cities,and allocate resources to the second-tier cities to promote the population Gather into second-and third-class cities to promote the balanced development of different levels of urban real estate markets;in terms of industrial structure,secondand third-class cities should first accelerate the development of living and public industries,and then develop productive industries.