"Threshold Effect" And "Scale Effect" Of Population Aging On Residents' Commercial Insurance Demand

Since the resumption of property insurance business in 1979,China's commercial insurance industry has experienced a rapid development in more than 30 years.The premium income has increased year by year,from only 290 million yuan in 1980 to over 2 trillion yuan in 2014,and then rapidly exceeded 3 trillion yuan in 2016.The average annual growth rate of premium income has reached 29%,even in 2017,it ranked the second in the world and became a real insurance power.The development of the insurance industry can not be separated from the national macroeconomic environment,and consumers as the main purchaser of insurance,the change of population age structure will inevitably have a far-reaching impact on the development of commercial insurance.With the implementation of the national policy of family planning and the continuous development of medical technology,China's mortality and fertility rate continue to decline,but life expectancy is gradually extended.In 2001,the proportion of the elderly over 65 years old in China reached 7.1%,indicating that China has entered an aging society,and is in a period of rapid aging.According to the?World Population Prospects 2017?,the number of the elderly over 65 years old in China will reach 359 million by 2050,accounting for 26.3%of the total population.Because the demand of different age groups for insurance products is different,and the change of population age structure will have a far-reaching impact on family economy,risk,responsibility and other aspects,this paper discusses the impact of population aging on family commercial insurance demand by combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis.Firstly,this paper introduces the related concepts,current situation and characteristics of China's population aging and commercial insurance,and takes this as the research background of this paper.Secondly,this paper makes a theoretical analysis of commercial insurance demand from two aspects:the development process of commercial insurance demand theory and the qualitative analysis of the impact of population aging on commercial insurance demand.After that,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the impact of population aging on the demand of family commercial insurance.Considering that "whether family needs commercial insurance or not" is the precondition of "how much commercial insurance is needed",this paper uses the "China Family Panel Studies" carried out by the China Social Science Research Center of Peking University in 2014.According to the survey data of CFPS,established the LOGIT model and the SUR model to analyze the" threshold effect" and "scale effect" of population aging on the demand of family commercial insurance,and predict the impact of the further aging of population on the development of China's commercial insurance.Finally,combined with the results of the analysis,summed up the conclusions of the full text and put forward corresponding suggestions.The main conclusions of this paper are:the "threshold effect" and "scale effect"of the number of elderly people on family commercial insurance demand are negative,that is,the more elderly people in the family,the lower the demand for commercial insurance for families,and the relative demand is relatively less;Although the number of children is positive for the "threshold effect" of family business insurance demand,its "scale effect" is significantly negative,That is,the more children in the family,the stronger the need for commercial insurance for the family,but the less demand for commercial insurance.In addition,the number of labor age members is not significant for the "threshold effect" of family commercial insurance,but its "scale effect" is significantly positive.The number of labor age members in the family does not have a significant impact on whether the family needs commercial insurance,but for families who have already purchased commercial insurance,the more labor age members,the greater the demand for commercial insurance.The above results not only indicate that the influence mechanism of population aging on the family 'whether it needs commercial insurance' or 'the demand of commercial insurance' is different.Moreover,due to the aging of the population,the number of children and the labor age population has gradually decreased,and the elderly population has gradually increased.The "threshold effect" and "scale effect"brought about by the aging of the population on the commercial insurance demand of residents are negative.It has comprehensively verified that the aging of the population will inhibit the demand of Chinese residents for commercial insurance.In addition,based on the forecast data of China's 2050 population in?World Population Prospects 2017?and the prediction of China's future economic growth trend by OECD organization,this paper estimates the impact of population aging trend on China's future commercial insurance demand.It is found that the further aging of the population will have a negative impact on the development of China's commercial insurance,which will reduce premium income by about 16%.From the microscopic point of view,this paper deeply analyzes the impact of population aging on China's family commercial insurance demand,which is useful for examining the protection of Chinese families,social pension issues and the sustainable development of the insurance industry.