Study On The Lag Effect Of The Demand For Endowment Insurance Of Urban And Rural Residents In My Country Based On The Aging Of The Population

Objective:At the end of the 20th century,my country has entered a society with an aging population.In recent years,the problem of population aging in our country has become increasingly serious,accompanied by the characteristics of getting older before getting rich and the size of the elderly population.This article believes that my country’s current pension insurance policy cannot adapt to the severe situation facing the future pension,because the aging of the population has a lagging effect on the demand for pension insurance.The demand for endowment insurance is cumulative and bursts out suddenly after exceeding the zero threshold,which requires the country to take precautions.In this context,this paper establishes a panel model to verify whether population aging has an impact on the demand for pension insurance for urban and rural residents in my country,whether the impact has a lagging effect,and whether the lagging effect between different regions and cities with different degrees of aging has an impact It has regional differences,and analyzes the reasons,explores the policy characteristics of the urban and rural residents’ pension insurance system in areas with lagging effects,and proposes policy recommendations that are conducive to improving my country’s urban and rural residents’ pension insurance system.Methods:The econometric model is used to verify the relationship between population aging and the demand for endowment insurance for urban and rural residents in my country:(1)Panel model:Use the relevant data of 31 provinces,municipalities,and autonomous regions in my country from 2010 to 2019 to form an endowment insurance policy for urban and rural residents.The per capita payment amount is the explained variable,the elderly dependency ratio is the core explanatory variable,and the per capita GDP,the education level of residents,and the level of urbanization are the control variables.The panel model analyzes the effects of population aging at the national level and in different regions of my country.The lag effect and regional differences in the demand for residents’ pension insurance.(2)Distributed lag model:Using the relevant data of eight cities with different levels of healthy aging in my country from 2012 to 2019,establish the number of urban and rural residents’ pension insurance as the dependent variable and the number of elderly people over 60 as the independent variable.The time series distribution lag model is used to verify the lagging effect of the aging of the urban population with different levels of healthy aging in my country on the demand for pension insurance for urban and rural residents.Results:The aging of the population has a lag effect on the demand for endowment insurance for urban and rural residents in my country.The number of lag periods is three and four.There are regional differences in the number of lag periods.The lag effect coefficients of the northeast,east,central,and west decrease in order lagging;There are differences in the direction of effect.The northeast and east have positive effects,while the central and western regions have negative effects.The current population aging has no significant impact on the demand for endowment insurance for urban and rural residents in the eastern and central regions,while the northeast has negative effects.There is a positive effect in the west.Cities with a high level of healthy aging all have different degrees of lag effect,with a long lag period;only a few cities with a low level of healthy aging have a lag effect,with a short lag period;cities with a high level of healthy aging have a lag effect coefficient Larger than cities with a low level of healthy aging.The impact of the level of economic development in different regions on the demand for endowment insurance for urban and rural residents is positively correlated.The education level of residents has the least impact on the demand for endowment insurance for urban and rural residents,showing a negative correlation.The level of urbanization has a small impact on the demand for pension insurance for urban and rural residents,showing a positive correlation,and the eastern part is larger than the central part.The reasons for its lag are:low level of pension insurance for urban and rural residents and weak protection function;low replacement rate of old-age insurance for urban and rural residents,unable to protect the needs of the elderly;people’s lack of awareness of pension risks,awareness and insurance participation There is a gap between them;the substitution effect of commercial endowment insurance on urban and rural residents’ endowment insurance;the preparation of the urban and rural residents’ endowment insurance system is lagging behind;there are large regional differences in financial subsidies for urban and rural residents’endowment insurance;the level of contributions made by residents in different regions to urban and rural residents’ endowment insurance There are differences in the level of choice;the pension insurance coverage rates of urban and rural residents in different regions are different;the imbalance between the aging of the population and the pension insurance funds for urban and rural residents;the imbalance of pensions under the inversion of urban and rural residents.Conclusion:The aging of the population has a lagged effect on the demand for endowment insurance for urban and rural residents in my country,and there are regional differences.The above empirical analysis results reflect that my country’s urban and rural residents’ pension insurance has many drawbacks since its implementation.We should pay attention to the lag effect of population aging,increase the government’s financial support for urban and rural residents’ pension insurance;strengthen policy publicity to increase residents’ awareness;encourage the development of supplementary pension insurance through a variety of preferential policies;improve financial subsidy incentives To break the "one size fits all" subsidy policy pattern,improve the system design and payment incentive mechanism;increase fiscal transfer payments to backward areas.