The Theoretical Analysis Of China's Unemployment Hysteresis And Its Empirical Study

Unemployment hysteresis is an important research topic in the labor market theory,It is also a difficult problem for policymakers to deal with.The unemployment hysteresis means:The unemployment rate that is rising because of the recession can not fall fast with the recovery of the economy,even for a long time,it is difficult to eliminate and even improve the natural rate of unemployment.Some scholars(Ding Shouhai,20112,013)found that there was Unemployment hysteresis in the period from 1997 to 2012.Because of the impact of the 1997 financial crisis in Southeast Asia.(Estimated)The actual unemployment rate has not fallen because of the recovery since 2003,even in the high growth stage,there is no significant decline,it is maintained at a high level of unemployment and is sustained for a long time.In the second half of 2008,China's economy has been hit by a new round of international financial crisis.And it's still in the downlink cycle,what is the impact of such a long downlink cycle on the actual unemployment rate in our country.Is it possible that the factors that cause the unemployment hysteresis existing,and are there any other possible new factors?The phenomenon of unemployment hysteresis would destroy the self-healing mechanism of the labor market,The economic recession has increased the unemployment of labor market,and will not immediately decline with the economic recovery,and even increase the level of natural unemployment.What is the effective Intervening policy?Observing signs of unemployment hysteresis and possible reasons for the rising unemployment rate since 2008,and proposing appropriate suggestions.It is the three topic of focus in this paper,and it is also a succession and continuation of the research in this field.Based on literature study and theory,referring the third generations of Phillips curve(Ding Shouhai and Jiang garlen,2013),By using the macro-quarterly data from 1997 to 2016,the phenomenon of China's unemployment hysteresis is tested.Then,using the theory of capital deepening,mistach of human capital theory,the real wage system rigity to explain the causes of the phenomenon of China's unemployment hysteresis.And further explain the factors that may lead to the unemployment hysteresis in this round of economic downturn.Then,using the multiple linear regression method,the 2008-2016 year experience data are used.Testing the cause of China's unemployment hysteresis by the new round of downlink cycle since 2008.Through the test,it is found that the Capital deepening,Mismatch of human capital and the rising of labor cost have a great influence on the potential unemployment hysteresis in China.Finally,based on the previous theoretical and empirical analysis,putting forward relevant suggestions,including positive employment policy,increasing vocational training and human capital,and building a flexible labor market.