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Estimation Of The Unemployment Duration And Analysis On Its Influencing Factors Of Labor In China

Posted on:2019-08-29Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:H Y YaoFull Text:PDF
GTID:2417330575453634Subject:Statistics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Under the new normal background,there exist an "effective supply shortage" and an"ineffective oversupply" of the labor in China's labor market at the same time,and the structural unemployment problem is becoming more and more serious.In the study process of the unemployment problem,in order to more accurately reflect the residents of unemployment,only focusing on labor participation rate and unemployment rate from the macroscopic angle is not comprehensive,unemployment duration is used to measure the degree of unemployment and the difficulty to solve the problem of unemployment internationally at the same time.Paper uses the Dynamic Survey Data of Chinese Labor Force in 2014,applies the theory of survival analysis to build COX proportional hazards model and weibull parameter model.The estimate of the unemployment duration is transformed into the estimate of the re-employment probability.The empirical part is divided into two parts:1.analyze the influence factors of unemployment duration in China,discuss the effect of various influencing factors from the point of view of quantitative and qualitative,and predict the average unemployment duration of labor in China;2.study the impact of different account types on the unemployment duration of labor in China,and predict the average unemployment duration of agricultural and non-agricultural account labor.The empirical results are as follows.The probability of reemployment decreases with age.Education was not significant in terms of the duration of unemployment.The factors that affect the duration of unemployment are not gender and marital status,but whether workers are married women.The gender discrimination of non-agricultural account labor force has been preliminarily improved,but the gender discrimination of agricultural account labor is still widespread.The probability of reemployment decreases with unemployment duration.The paper uses the opportunity function of weibull parameter model to deduce the expected unemployment duration equation and estimates the average unemployment duration of the labor force in China.which is about 19.6 months.The average unemployment duration of the non-agricultural household labor in China is about 21.2 months,and the average unemployment duration of the agricultural household labor is about 19.5 months.The results show that the expected average duration of unemployment of Labor has been in long-term unemployment in our country at present,and the proportion of structural unemployment has occupied the main part.So,it is suggested that the government should pay attention to the "married women" problem,establish standard system of vocational education and training,establish the systems of unemployment insurance supervision and punishment,release targeted job vacancy information.encourage new areas of employment;The workers themselves should actively participate in vocational training to improve their human capital.
Keywords/Search Tags:Unemployment Duration, COX Proportional Risk Model, Weibull Parameter Model, Structural Unemployment
PDF Full Text Request
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