Study On The Change And Development Trend Of Rural Population In Hebei Province

Rural population is an important factor affecting the development of agricultural economy and the key to the construction of new socialist countryside.The change of rural population is directly related to agricultural production,rural organizations,social security and other aspects.Therefore,it is of great significance to analyze and predict the change and development of rural population in Hebei Province for promoting rural construction in Hebei Province.Natural population change is one of the main causes of rural population change.Natural population changes include the new-born population of women of childbearing age and the population reduced by death.With the improvement of medical and health conditions,the number of dead population gradually stabilizes at a lower level.Therefore,the estimation of age-specific fertility rate of women of childbearing age is the main part of the estimation of natural population changes.Relevant literature shows that the distribution function of age-specific fertility curve is similar to that of normal distribution family.Through comparative analysis,this paper uses a new distribution function model composed of lognormal distribution and Poisson distribution to predict age-specific fertility rate,and uses non-linear least squares method to fit model parameters.The sum of squares of model residuals shows that the fitting results are good.In Hebei Province,the influx of millions of people from rural areas into cities and towns every year is another major reason for the reduction of rural population.Predicting the migration rate of rural population is the core of predicting the number of rural migration and an important part of predicting the change of rural population.Relevant theories show that the gap between urban and rural areas is the main reason for attracting rural population to migrate to urban areas.Since the beginning of the new century,the change of income gap between urban and rural areas in Hebei Province has obvious linear characteristics,while other social conditions are relatively stable.This paper uses the moving average method to estimate the migration probability of rural population,and presents the data intuitively in the form of Markov probability matrix.Through the correlation analysis,the change of population quantity is closely related to the development factors such as age structure,aging level,education level,marriage squeeze and so on.With the shrinkage of population,the level of aging in rural areas of Hebei Province is deepening,the scale of education is shrinking,and marriage squeeze will become a serious trend.This paper finally draws four conclusions:(1)the scale of rural resident population continues to shrink,whether in the near future or in the long term,this trend is difficult to reverse;(2)the direction of population change is mainly from rural to urban,and there will be no reverse urbanization phenomenon in the short term;(3)the income gap between urban and rural areas is the main factor of rural population change,and the number of people moving from rural to urban every year.The amount is more than 1 million,far exceeding the natural population growth level of about 100,000 per year;(4)The living burden of the labor force population is increasing,because of the relative increase of the proportion of the elderly population and the long-term existence of marriage squeeze,the pressure burden of the labor force population is increasing year by year.The main suggestions to solve the above problems are:(1)to maintain the policy of encouraging fertility,promote the natural growth of the population and stabilize the population dividend;(2)to strengthen the life security of the rural population,mainly by providing economic support for the elderly and young,so as to alleviate the pressure of the maintenance of the labor force population;(3)to promote the development of education in rural areas and improve the quality of the labor force population;Reserve talents for rural construction;(4)Attract talented people to return home and try to narrow the gap between urban and rural areas.