Study On The Influence Of Demographic Change On The Transformation Of Economic Growth Mode

The population structure plays an important role in the transformation of the economic growth mode in China and even in the developing countries.Accurately grasping the influence of changes in demographic structure on the transformation of economic growth patterns has practical implications for accelerating the transformation of China's economic growth pattern.This paper selects the population's cultural structure,age structure,employment structure,and urban-rural structure as indicators for measuring population structure.The article constructs an analysis framework for human capital and structural factors,and analyzes the transmission mechanism of changes in demographic structure acting on economic growth patterns under this theoretical framework.This paper uses the data envelopment method(DEA-Malmquist)to calculate the contribution rate of total factor productivity to economic growth of provinces,cities,and autonomous regions from 1990 to2016,and uses this as an indicator to evaluate the economic growth mode of the surveyed targets,based on 1990-2016.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions,the FMOLS method was used to empirically analyze the changes in demographic structure and the changes in economic growth patterns.Finally get the following conclusions:Since 1990,the contribution rate of TFP to GDP growth in most provinces of our country has shown a downward trend in fluctuations,indicating that China's economic growth pattern not only does not have an intensive and connotative pattern of economic growth,but there are still signs of a regression of economic growth patterns.In the overall national sample,the increase in the proportion of the population with a national degree in national or higher education has a positive effect on transforming the mode of economic growth;the aging of the population has a negative effect on transforming the mode of economic growth;the decline in the total dependency ratio of population has contributed to changing the mode of economic growth.Role;The increase in the proportion of employment in the secondary industry of the labor force has a negative impact on the mode of economic growth;China's currenturbanization process has low economic efficiency and has a negative effect on the transformation of economic growth patterns.In the regional sample,the increase in the percentage of the population with a bachelor degree or above in the coastal and inland areas is conducive to transforming the mode of economic growth.Although it has unity in the role of total factor productivity,it shows a difference in the role of investment and employment.opposite sex.The increase in the share of employment in the secondary industry in the coastal areas has a negative effect on changing the mode of economic growth.The decline in the total dependency ratio of the population in inland areas is conducive to the change in the mode of economic growth,mainly because the decline in the total dependency ratio has inhibited the formation of fixed capital.The population ageing in the inland areas,the proportion of employment in the secondary industry,and the urbanization of the population all have a negative effect on the transformation of the economic growth pattern.They all have the same effect on the growth rate of total factor productivity,but they have a role in investment and employment.It's different.At last,according to the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis results,combined with the status quo and trends of China's population structure development,we propose policy recommendations based on China's national conditions for the cultural structure,age structure,employment structure,and urban-rural structure of China's population.The innovations in this article are: First,this paper selects population structure,age structure,employment structure,and urban-rural structure as the four demographic factors to measure the population structure;Second,this paper constructs the theoretical analysis framework of structural factors in the human capital theory and economic growth theory.This paper analyzes the mechanism of the influence of changes in demographic structure on the transformation of economic growth patterns,enriches the theory of structural factors in economic growth theory,and expands the sample size.Third,the paper also examines the influence of the proportion of labor force in the secondary industry on the change of economic growth pattern and reveals the effect of employment structure on the transformation of China's economic growth pattern.Fourth,the paper further explains the impact of population urbanization on economic growth,and further decomposes its mechanism of action to clarify the mechanism of action.Fifth,this paper divides the country,region,and the internalmechanism from multiple perspectives An Empirical Study on the Effect of Structural Changes on Economic Growth Modes.