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Demographic Dividend Change On China's Economic Growth Impact Study

Posted on:2013-04-19Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:H GuoFull Text:PDF
GTID:2247330374471922Subject:Western economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Since1965, the East Asian growth miracle sparked great debate the role of the demographic dividend, since the population structure and the relationship between economic growth and gradually pay attention to it. From the theoretical perspective, the demographic dividend means that the proportion of working-age population, a larger proportion of the total population, to provide adequate labor supply in order to delay the capital of diminishing returns, while lower social dependency ratio to increase the savings rate, and thus in favor of capital formation; from a practical perspective, China’s three decades of rapid growth is indeed associated with the proportion of working-age population continues to rise, if China’s rapid growth brought about by the demographic dividend, then the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend means that China’s past growth model is facing an important bottleneck. And this question to be answered is, in the "population balance-the demographic dividend-Population liabilities" in the transformation process, the demographic dividend of this dynamic change impact on economic growth? China’s demographic dividend what changes have taken place? This change impact on China’s economic growth? Changes in the context of the demographic dividend Chinese growth model should be how to complete the transformation?This article attempts to change the demographic dividend will impact on economic growth into a growth accounting framework, indicating that the demographic dividend changes on economic growth, that the era of China after the dividend growth model transfonnation provide the theoretical basis, while the last three decades changes in China’s demographic dividend measure, and through empirical analysis of China’s demographic dividend changes and their impact on economic growth, after the dividend that the era of Chinese strategic transformation to provide the appropriate basis in reality.This argument is divided into four levels:first, the demographic transition theory, demonstrate the demographic dividend as the level of economic development resulting from the inverted U-shaped variation, and to adjust the Solow-Swan model of framework, from the dynamic The angles of the demographic dividend changes for all factors of production and the impact of technology and efficiency, that the labor supply, capital formation, labor allocation efficiency and human capital accumulation is the change in population age structure, the main impact of the economic mechanism; dependency ratio indicators, and secondly to take growth rate of decomposition methods for evaluation of changes in China’s demographic dividend, which means that China has concluded that since the mid-1980s debt by the population into demographic dividend period, and continued expansion in the later period, but the provinces demographic dividend harvest level and structure are different; again by further empirical analysis shows that the demographic dividend changes impact on economic growth, the demographic dividend in the past that changes in the process, the dependency ratio by1percentage point each, will result in economic growth the contribution rate; full text article is based on the final conclusions of the era after the dividend growth model of China’s economic transition from high investment, high savings based exogenous technological progress and growth to efficiency-based endogenous growth transformation, the number of elements from the labor growth factor to the quality of growth of labor restructuring, development of extensive growth from resource to resource conservation and efficient growth transformation.
Keywords/Search Tags:Demographic dividend, Demographic liabilities, Savings rate, Dependency ratio, Transformation of growth mode
PDF Full Text Request
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