| China is a populous country with abundant labor resources,how to guarantee the full employment level is important for social harmony and social stability.At present,China still has 900 million working-age people,the employment pressure on the whole society is still huge.Manufacturing industry is one of the major sectors to absorb the labor force.Ensure the stability of employment of manufacturing industry is significant for alleviating the huge employment pressure in China.At present,the world is during a the new round of technology change,it is possible to change the mode of production again depending on the deep integration of digital technology and manufacturing technology,the rapid development of artificial intelligence and the wide application of big data technology.Under the new historic opportunity,China has proposed to put high-tech as a driving force in order to achieving the strategic target that promote China to develop into a great power in manufacturing from a pure big manufacturing country.Employment is the greatest livelihood of people,and technological progress is the source power that can help China became a strong manufacturing country.So what is the relationship between technological progress and employment? Modern economic researches show that technological progress is not neutral,but presents a biased factor characteristic.If we ignored the bias of technological progress,we will also ignore the different influence of technological progress on different factors,so it is difficult to analyze the influence mechanism of technological progress on employment.Therefore,if we want to clarify the relationship between technological progress and employment,we must start from the biased technological progress,and study the impact of biased technological progress on employment.That followed by a series of problems:What is the mechanism of the impact of biased technological progress on employment? Does different biased technological progress has different impact on employment? What is the bias of technological progress of China's manufacturing industry? What is the impact of biased technological progress on employment of China's manufacturing industry? In order to solving these problems,we begin our study.Specifically,the main contents and the main conclusions of our study are as follows:Firstly,we theoretically analyze the impact of biased technological progress on employment of manufacturing industry.By constructing a model of labor demand-supply,we analyzes the mechanism of the impact of biased technological progress on the employment of skilled labor and the employment of unskilled labor in different situations.The results show that,if technological progress is in favor of skilled labor,the employment of skilled labor of manufacturing industry will increase,however,the change of employment of unskilled labor of manufacturing industry is uncertain,accordingly,the change of total employment of manufacturing industry is also uncertain.On the contrary,if technological progress is in favor of unskilled labor,the employment of unskilled labor of manufacturing industry will increase,however,the change of employment of skilled labor of manufacturing industry is uncertain.,accordingly,the change of total employment of manufacturing industry is also uncertain.Secondly,we measure the bias of technological progress of China's manufacturing industry.Using the stochastic frontier model based on transcendental logarithm function,we measure the biased technological progress index of China's manufacturing industry,high-tech industry,middle-low technology industry and 28 subdivision industries from1999 to 2011.The results show that,from1999 to 2011,the technological progress of China's manufacturing industry is in favor of skilled labor,the technological progress of high-tech industry and middle-low technology industry are also in favor of skilled labor.However,the bias of technological progress of 28 subdivision industries are different,during the sample period,technological progress of 16 industries are in favor of skilled labor,technological progress of 12 industries are in favor of unskilled labor.Thirdly,we empirically test the impact of biased technological progress on the total employment of manufacturing industry.Using the biased technological progress index in28 subdivision manufacturing industries from 1999 to 2011,we empirically test the impact of biased technological progress on the total employment of manufacturing industry,we also empirically test the different impact of biased technological progress on total employment of different ownership enterprises.The results show that,during the sample period,the skill-biased technological progress has a positive effect on the total employment of manufacturing industry,and if technological progress is in favor of skilled labor,the total employment of state-owned enterprises will increase more than that ofnon-state-owned enterprises.Fourthly,we empirically test the impact of biased technological progress on the employment of skilled labor and unskilled labor of manufacturing industry.Using the biased technological progress index of 28 subdivision manufacturing from 1999 to 2011,we empirically test the impact of biased technological progress on the employment of skilled labor and unskilled labor of manufacturing industry,and we further test the threshold effect of the impact of skill-biased technological progress on the employment of skilled labor.The results show that,First,during the sample period,the skill-biased technological progress has a significant positive effect on the employment of unskilled labor of manufacturing industry,however,it has insignificant effect on the employment of skilled labor of manufacturing industry.Second,if we put the industrial added value per capita(R&D capital stock)as threshold variable,there is a threshold effect of the impact of skill-biased technological progress on the employment of skilled labor : if the industrial added value per capita(R&D capital stock)of manufacturing industry does not cross the threshold,the effect of skill-biased technological progress on the employment of skilled labor is insignificant.If the industrial added value per capita(R&D capital stock)of manufacturing industry crosses the threshold,the skill-biased technological progress has a significant positive impact on the employment of skilled labor of manufacturing industry.During the sample period,the mean value of added value per capita(R&D capital stock)of most industries do not exceed the threshold,therefore,the impact of skill-biased technological progress on the employment of skilled labor becomes insignificant.The innovations of this dissertation are mainly reflected in the following aspects:Firstly,from a theoretical aspect,we construct a model of labor supply-demand to analysis the different impact of biased technological progress on the employment of manufacturing industry under different situations(different factor relations and different types of technological progress).However,little existing researches do a comprehensive analysis of the mechanism of the impact of biased technological progress on the employment.Secondly,from a empirical aspect,Using the stochastic frontier model based on transcendental logarithm function,we measure the bias of technological progress of China's manufacturing industry(between skilled labor and unskilled labor).Then,usingpanel regression model and panel threshold model,we test the impact of skill-biased technological progress of the total employment,the employment of skilled labor and the employment of unskilled labor of manufacturing industry.However,little existing researches do a empirical test of impact of biased technological progress on the employment of China's manufacturing industry.Thirdly,in the conclusion of our study,first of all,we find that,in different situations,the impact of skill-biased technological progress of the employment of unskilled labor is different.In some studies,a partial view is that the skill-biased technological progress has a negative effect on the employment of unskilled labor.then,we find that the impact of skill-biased technological progress of the employment of skilled labor of manufacturing industry is non-linear,more concretely,there is a threshold effect of the impact of skill-biased technological progress on the employment of skilled labor of manufacturing industry.However,most empirical researches only find that there is a linear relationship between technological progress and employment. |
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