Study On The Impact Of Foreign Trade On Employment In Guangdong Province

From 1978 to 2017,foreign trade in guangdong province developed rapidly and played a very important role in the economic growth of guangdong province.In recent years,with the "One Belt And One Road" initiative proposed,guangdong province's foreign trade has entered a new stage,with great changes in the foreign trade structure,increasing accumulation of technology and increasing proportion of high-tech products in exports.This series of import and export structural adjustment is bound to have an impact on the employment of guangdong province,and it is of great significance to study the impact of guangdong's foreign trade on employment.The theories of foreign trade and employment are complex and contradictory.Trade protectionism holds that exports promote employment growth while imports lead to unemployment.In contrast,free trade advocates believe that in the long run,both import and export have a positive effect on employment.For guangdong province,how and to what extent will foreign trade affect employment is the main issue studied in this paper.Through descriptive statistical analysis,this paper first explores the total and structural changes of trade and employment in guangdong province.Through relevant trade theory model,the import and export of employment between influence mechanism and the influence of deduction,and then according to the theory to support an econometric model,using the relevant data from 1987 to 2017 data from the whole of guangdong province level,regional level,urban and rural structure level three dimensions to study the effect of export and import on employment of guangdong province.In general,the conclusion is that both the export and import of guangdong province can promote the employment,and the import can promote the employment more than the export.From the regional perspective,the pearl river delta region exports and imports have a significant role in promoting employment,the east wing,the west wing and the mountain area import of the promotion of employment is obvious,the export of the promotion of employment is not significant;From the perspective of urban-rural structure,foreign trade plays a significant role in promoting urban employment,while only import plays a significant role in promoting rural employment.Finally,on the basis of the above conclusions,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.In this paper,policy recommendations mainly from three aspects,the first is the play to the comparative advantage;Second,to promote technological progress through imports;Third,we will stabilize the labor market.