Research On The Influence Of The Wisdom Of Crowds Within Based On Availability Heuristic

The wisdom of crowds refers to the fact that individuals in a group make decisions independently under certain conditions,and the final result obtained through a certain aggregation method is usually better than individuals in the group(including experts in the group).In a nutshell,the result of the aggregation of the crowd is smarter than the individuals in the group.Studies have shown that not only groups,but also a single person can produce similar wisdom of crowds.Specifically,averaging multiple estimates of the same person will produce a more accurate result than a single estimate,which can be described as the wisdom of crowds in one mind.The availability heuristics believe that people tend to rely on the experience and information that they first think of,and that these events that are easily perceived or recalled appear more often as a basis for judgment.In other words,information faster into their minds is more likely to be fully used.Can the availability heuristic improve the validity of the wisdom of the crowds in one mind,and how will the individual's previous valuation be changed? This paper will focus on the wisdom of crowds at the individual level,and explore the influence of the two available heuristics of dialectical guidance and social projection on the wisdom of crowds in one mind.In this paper,three sets of experiments were designed using empirical research methods.At the same time,in order to feedback the results to the participants faster,based on JAVA WEB,using Eclipse,MySQL,Navicat Premium and other tools,combined with jsp technology,css cascading style sheets,JavaScript scripting language,JDBC database access technology,etc.,a small answering system was built.In order to better evaluate the wisdom of crowds within,three evaluation parameters of intensity of the wisdom of crowds,precision of the wisdom of crowds and superiority of the wisdom of crowds were constructed,and the collected data were statistically analyzed by SPSS statistical tools.The research shows that the dialectical guidance heuristic method considers that the opposite strategy has limited effect on improving the wisdom of crowds in one mind.It is difficult or impossible for the participants to judge the direction of the first valuation relative to the true value.Therefore,the dialectical guidance heuristic tries to make the participants consider the opposite will lose meaning.Social projection availability heuristics significantly reduce the intelligence intensity of the wisdom of crowds in one mind,that is,social projection has an impact on the second valuation of individuals,and this effect is negative.However,the social projection heuristics make the second estimate of the individual have smaller standard deviation and coefficient of variation,the group's valuation is more concentrated,and the internal error of the group is reduced.