Study On The Relationship Between Population Mobility And Housing Price Based On Pvar Model ——Take 26 Cities In The Yangtze River Delta As An Example

The 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta have a relatively high degree of economic openness.The overall economic strength of the cities is relatively strong.The growth rate of GDP is generally higher than the national level.The population growth of core cities is outstanding,and the population of Hangzhou has also entered the Among the ranks of the tens of millions,with the accelerated construction of the Yangtze River Delta regional integration in the future,the transportation of the pan-Yangtze River Delta cities will be more convenient,the industrial economy will be transformed and upgraded in the promotion of integration,and the region will also attract more population inflows.High housing prices in parts of the triangle have also become a major obstacle,so residential prices have become one of the hotspots of public concern.With the reform of the household registration system and the acceleration of urbanization,the number of floating population has gradually increased.The floating population will have an important impact on the housing market,and the housing issue has naturally become an urgent problem for the floating population.Under the background of my country’s rising housing prices and the increase of the total floating population,it is of practical significance to study the relationship between population mobility and commodity housing prices.Based on the panel data of 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2005 to 2019,this paper explores the two-way interactive relationship between population mobility and housing prices in 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta.At the same time,the 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta are divided into three levels,in order to provide a certain theoretical basis and reference for the first-,second-,and third-and fourth-tier cities in terms of population flow and real estate market development.First,on the basis of combing domestic and foreign literature and clarifying the relevant concepts and theories on which the research is based,a theoretical analysis framework for the interaction between population mobility and housing prices is constructed.Then,use the data to briefly describe the development status of the two and analyze the data to obtain the scale and characteristics of the population flow in the 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta.Research on the status quo of differences.The results show that the overall housing prices and population mobility of the 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta vary greatly in time and space.When verifying the differences in housing prices and population mobility in different grades of cities,it can be inferred that the differences in population mobility in different regions may occur.To a certain extent,there will be a population agglomeration effect in the area,which will then affect housing prices.Secondly,in order to explore the interaction mechanism between housing prices and population mobility in 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta,our theoretical model is chosen to construct the PVAR model in the empirical study.In the analysis of the test results,the dynamic relationship between the two is studied by using impulse response analysis,and the contribution of variables is explained by variance decomposition.The results show that there is a long-term two-way interaction between population mobility and housing prices in 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta,and there are significant differences in the interaction between population mobility and housing prices in first-,second-,and third-and fourth-tier cities.Finally,this paper summarizes the research content and draws the conclusion that there is a two-way impact between population mobility and housing price fluctuations in 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta.Based on the conclusions obtained from empirical analysis,combined with the actual situation,the following suggestions are put forward to guide the new urbanization rationally.,to improve the welfare of talents and to provide policy recommendations on three levels of rental housing construction.Specifically,it includes: changing the traditional thinking that focuses on small and medium-sized cities and urban areas for a long time,screening out meaningless urban development-related policies;strengthening the talent housing policy to attract the inflow of capable talents;more extensive application" The system of renting and selling with the same rights protects the rights and interests of renters.Figure[25] table[12] reference[56]...