The Impact Of Population Mobility On Urban Commodity Housing Price

In the 13th Five-Year Plan of China,we explicitly proposed that we should actively promote the new urbanization strategy.Under such a time background,China's population mobility is frequent and its population scale is also growing.According to the statistics of the State Health Planning Commission,as of 2016,the number of population mobility has reached 245 million.Among the problems related to population mobility,the issue of housing is undoubtedly a topic of general concern to the community.It is difficult for high-priced home buyers to stop countless migrant workers who have a dream of urban dreams,whether it is for college graduates who are full of dreams or go out for migrant workers who make a living.It can be said that this issue is the heart of the problem of population mobility and also a livelihood issue that the state attaches great importance to and attempts to solve.Based on the panel data of 30 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2005 to 2015,this paper adopts the general fixed-effects regression(FE),the two-stage least squares regression with instrument method(IV-2SLS)and the first-order difference generalized moment estimation method(D-GMM)conducted an empirical analysis.Through empirical research,this paper verifies that there exists a theoretically inverted U-shaped relationship between population mobility and urban commodity housing prices.However,judging from the current reality of our country,the two show a highly approximate linear positive correlation.At the same time,the effect of population migration on housing prices in population-exiting cities and population-influx cities is different.Population inflows have a positive effect on housing prices in a city,and the outflow of population has a negative effect on urban housing prices.In addition,in the residential leasing market,the population mobility promoted the increase of residential rents,indicating that there is a strong demand for housing in the short term.From the selected control variables,the urbanization rate and the level of economic development of a city have a positive role in promoting urban housing prices;the impact of urban environment on housing prices can not be ignored;and the impact of urban public services on the price of commercial housing does not have robust results in this study,but it is believed that housing prices in cities with relatively good infrastructure generally have relatively small increases.The effect of land transaction price on housing price is very significant,which shows that the land transfer system in our country can have a huge impact on the real estate market,and indirectly prove the utility and inherent incentive of our country's land fiscal system to local government.This article mainly consists of five parts,which are elaborated from the following five aspects:introduction,theoretical overview,status quo analysis,empirical analysis and policy suggestions.The first part:introduction.This part mainly introduces the research background of this article,research status at home and abroad,research ideas and methods.This part mainly from the perspective of the actual background,combing the relevant literature at home and abroad,puting forward the issue of research,a clear research ideas.The second part:related theory overview.This part mainly introduces the classic theory of population mobility and the housing price formation mechanism theory,which lays a theoretical foundation for the subsequent establishment of models and arguments.The third part:the basic situation of our country's population mobility and the real estate market's development.This part mainly expounds the current situation of our country's population and the development of the real estate market,so as to understand the current situation of the population mobility and the real estate market in our country,and lay a solid foundation for the empirical study of this article.The fourth part:Empirical research on the effect of population mobility on urban commodity housing prices.This chapter first studies the effect of population mobility on urban commodity housing prices from the economic theory perspective,and then makes theoretical assumptions.Secondly,through the establishment of measurement model and the use of statistics software Statal3.0 regression analysis,further from the perspective of empirical analysis of the impact of population mobility on urban commodity housing prices.The fifth part,conclusion and countermeasure suggestion.This section mainly summarizes the conclusions of this study,and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for the relevant issues.