Study On The Influence Of Population Aging And Housing Price On Resident Consumption Level

In 2018,the State Council issued?Some opinions on improving the system and mechanism of promoting consumption and further stimulating the consumption potential of residents?,emphasizing the fundamental role of enhancing consumption in economic development,and proposing to speed up the improvement of consumption promotion system and mechanism,promote the steady and healthy development of the economy and meet the growing needs of the people for a better life.However,in recent years,with the rapid increase of the number of elderly people,our country has entered the population aging in the less developed state of social economy,and has fallen into the dilemma of “aging before getting rich”.The decrease of labor population and the change of population structure brought about by the aging of population lead to the change of consumption structure and affect the economic structure and development of our country.At the same time,as a long-term pillar industry of the national economy,real estate has ushered in a rapid development.The high-speed rise of housing price affects the wealth status,consumption ability and quality of life of every family.Therefore,it is urgent to study the mechanism of population aging and housing price on resident consumption level.This paper will carry out two empirical studies from different perspectives to analyze the impact of population aging and housing price on resident consumption level.For the first time,panel data of old-age dependency ratio,average selling price of commercial housing and resident consumption level in 31 provinces of China from 2001 to 2018 will be used to construct panel vector auto-regressive model through stata16.0 to explore the relationship between population aging,housing price and resident consumption level.From the analysis results of impulse response graph,whether in the long term or in the short term,the population aging and housing price have a positive impact on resident consumption level,and the population aging also has a positive effect on housing price.The results show that the acceleration of the process of population aging and the rise of housing price will promote the improvement of the resident consumption level of Chinese.At the same time,as the population aging will also promote the rise of housing price,we can guess whether housing price plays a certain role in the mechanism of the influence of population aging on resident consumption level.So for the second time,we will use the time series data of China's old-age dependency ratio,average selling price of commercial housing and resident consumption level from 2001 to 2018 to test the correlation of population aging,housing price and resident consumption level respectively,and confirm that there is strong correlation and no collinearity.Then we will build the intermediary effect model through spss24.0 plug-in process3.3 to analyze whether the housing price has intermediary effect between the population aging and the resident consumption level.From the model test table of intermediary effect and the proportion of intermediary effect,housing price does play an intermediary role in the influence path of population aging on resident consumption level,that is,on the one hand,population aging can directly affect resident consumption level;on the other hand,population aging can indirectly affect resident consumption level by affecting housing price.Two empirical results show that:population aging and housing price can not only directly affect resident consumption level,but also population aging can indirectly affect resident consumption level through housing price.I hope that according to the conclusions of this study,we can put forward practical policy recommendations for the population aging,housing price and resident consumption level.