| With Decision of the State Council on the Reform of the Pension Insurance System for Employees of State Organs and Public Institutions(Guo fa[2015]No.2)was issued and implemented,the occupational pension system has become an important part of the endowment insurance for Emplo yees of State Organs and Public Institutions.The occupational annuity system,as the second pillar of the three-pillar system of social pensions,plays an important role in supplementing old-age security and breaking the dual-track system of pension insurance in china.The implementation of the occupational annuity system has,to a certain extent,effectively supplemented the basic pensions in the society,and overall improved the level of pension security for employees of government agencies and institutions after retirement.However,with the decline in the mortality rate of the population,the average life expectancy of the population will continue to increase,In 2018,the average life expectancy of C hina's resident population reached 77 years,especially as China has entered an aging society,the elderly population continues to increase,and the existence of longevity risks makes the current adequacy ratio of the occupational annuity system is not enough,it also will increase the pressure on the government to provide for the elderly.Therefore,the essay mainly analyzes the problem of low sufficiency in the implementation process of the current occupational pension system from the perspective of mortality.In this context,based on the analysis of the reform and merger of C hina's pension system,this essay studies the occupational pension system as a supplement to the pension system,and analyzes the problem of low sufficiency in the implementation process of the current occupational pension system from the perspective of mortality.The main idea is to predict future dynamic mortality through the Lee-carter model,and calculate the average life expectancy of the male and female population based on this data.Introduce occupational annuity adequacy ratio,compare and analyze male and female occupational annuity adequacy ratio,and reveal the risks in the implementation of occupational annuity system.This article analyzes the characteristics of C hina's current occupational annuity system from qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,and then conducts empirical analysis to study the adequacy ratio of occupational annuity system in the context of longevity risk and the potential risk,and then,based on the results of empirical research,put forward countermeasures and suggestions for the operation of an occupational annuity system that suits the national conditions.The first chapter is the introduction.This part writes the background of the topic and significance of the thesis,the research results and current research status of scholars at home and abroad,introduces the thread,logical structure and main research methods of the paper,and points out innovations and weaknesses.The second chapter firstly starts from the background of the merger of the basic endowment insurance in government organs and public institutions,and expounds the concept and characteristics of the newly introduced occupational annuity system in C hina.Different from enterprise annuity,occupational annuity is mandatory and can greatly improve the security level of employees in government organs and public institutions.Then it analyzes the financing mode and operation mode of occupational annuity,which is also a deterministic payment plan,and completes accumulation by establishing a personal account to supplement the old-age security.Finally,a simple analysis is made of the establishment process and development status of China's occupational annuity.Chapter three firstly analyzes the current situation of C hina's population mortality,and finds that China's population mortality rate has been declining since the founding of the People's Republic of C hina,and then started to decline after a sudden rise.In recent years,it also shows a declining trend,and the decline of mortality also means the increase of life expectancy of the population.Subsequently,the common mortality model are briefly introduced,and the impact of changes in mortality on occupational annuities is analyzed.According to the experience of our mortality data to choose dynamic model namely Lee-carter mortality model respectively to predict the future of the male and female population mortality,according to the results,whether male or female,death rate over time presents the downward trend,and women's mo rtality rate is lower than the male population mortality.The fourth chapter introduces the concept of occupational pension adequacy ratio,that is,this paper believes that the occupational pension adequacy ratio is equal to the actual monthly amount of occupational pension after personal retirement than the remaining life after personal retirement,and studies the potential problems of occupational pension system under dynamic mortality.This essay first uses the mortality results fitted in Chapter 3 to calculate the average life expectancy of the male and female population in the next years.The results show that the life expectancy of the male and female population has also increased over the years.And,in line with expectations,the average life expectancy of the female population is higher than the average life expectancy of the male population.Finally,based on the relevant premise assumptions,the occupational annuity adequacy ratios of men and women were calculated from the perspective of micro-individuals.It was found that the occupational annuity adequacy ratio was less than 50% for both men and women.Relatively low.In addition,women's occupational annuity adequacy ratios are lower than men's.Based on this situation,we will find that there will be a large number of elderly population after retirement will have a long period of life that can not be effectively guaranteed.The fifth chapter is related conclusions and policy recommendations.Proposed relevant reference suggestions in aspects suc h as adjusting the number of calculation months of occupational annuity personal account,delaying worker retirement age and gradually achieve the same retirement age for men and women,and purchasing commercial endowment insurance to improve the level of endowment insurance for employees.In addition,considering the investment income of the fund as a part of the occupational annuity account accumulation,the investment of professional annuity funds is also very important.Therefore,it is recommended to optimize the financial market environment to ensure the profitability and security of annuity funds,and establish a multi-level sustainable development Pension security system.The innovation of this paper lies in that in addition to using the Lee-Carter model to calculate the mortality of male and female populations respectively,the average life expectancy of male and female populations is calculated based on this dynamic mortality,and the dynamic life expectancy under different age groups is obtained.In addition,under the background of the merging of pension insurance,the occupational pension adequacy ratio is calculated under the dynamic mortality rate by introducing the definition of occupational pension adequacy ratio,and the supplementary role played by the occupational pension system is analyzed from the length of the guarantee period and the social problems that may be caused by the current level of adequacy ratio are considered. |
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