Studying Of Chinese Life Expectancy ——Using Lee-Carter Model And CBD Model

After the process of reforming and opening-up, the economy and society developed very fast, and the living standards of people are improving continuously. Together with the rapid development of technology, and medical care and sanitation standards, the life expectancies of people in our country are increasing fast. The uncertainty of people’s life expectancy would lead to the large gap between the income and payout of the pension fund, which exerts big pressure to the pension fund. Now, we only have a few mortality data of our country, and the method of most literature in our country is just limit to the Lee-Carter model. In this paper, I first extend our mortality data, which solves the problem of shortage of data, and then I use two models, the Lee-Carter model and the CBD model, to forecast the mortality rates and the life expectancies.Besides the Lee-Carter model, the CBD model is another well-known model which is used to project the future mortality rates. In my paper, I introduce the CBD model, and I use two life tables, the cohort life table and the period life table, to calculate the life expectancies of men and women in China. In order to make the fitting and projecting of the variates more convincing, I use some smoothing methods to smooth the estimated parameters. After I get all the results, I analyze the trends of life expectancies of different age group, and then I make comparisons between the two methods, between the two life tables and between the two sexes. In this paper, I introduce another famous model which provides new ideas to the study of mortality rates and life expectancies.The statistics of mortality data are quite few and incontinuous in our country. Before the year of 1994, the government did not realize the importance of recording the mortality data, and rarely were there some relevant statistics. I use the yearly mortality data for the both sexes, with age interval 1, ranging from the year of 1994 to the year of 2002, to project the future trend of mortality rates, and then calculate the life expectancies.