Research On The Impact Of Population Migration On Housing Prices

The demand of house is one of the basic needs to satisfy the people's happy life.It is related to the national development plan and the people's happy life.On the one hand,rising house prices will reduce the welfare level of the people,and on the other hand,they will increase the risk of real estate bubbles.The research in this paper finds that there are "non-stationarity" and regional "heterogeneity" in the rise of real estate prices in China,and the main impact mechanism comes from the change of human capital structure and the improvement of urbanization level.The human capital structure includes not only the accumulation of high-end talents,but also the labor force engaged in basic labor in other industries,such as construction and basic services,to move to metropolitan agglomerations,while increasing the average wage level of the metropolitan agglomerations.The aftermath effect in the region is driving demand in the real estate market.It should be noted that housing supply cannot be increased rapidly in the short term.With the increase of urbanization,the floating population has increased the rigid demand for local housing.At the same time,due to the consumption habits of Chinese consumers and the demonstration effect of consumption,the demand in the real estate market is strong and investment in real estate companies is promoted.Investment in real estate companies is increased and land prices are pushed up.Therefore,it will promote both demand and supply.Rising housing prices.Based on EPS database,CEIC database,China City Statistical Yearbook,China Regional Statistical Yearbook,and China Real Estate Statistical Yearbook,a rigorous empirical analysis of the above theoretical hypotheses is performed.The research results show that the floating population and the price of residential commercial housing show a significant positive correlation.Each 1% increase in the index of floating population will lead to an increase of 367.2% in the price of residential commercial housing.After adding the real estate turnover tax and real estate holding tax,the floating population will The impact of the average sales price of real estate is still positive,but the coefficient becomes smaller,and each 1% increase in the proportion of floating population will result in an increase in the average sales price of residential housing by 173.9%.Further,after controlling for population factors,it was found that indicators of floating population Every 1% increase will lead to a 74%increase in housing prices,a significant level of 1%.At the same time,it can be found that the housing price and the proportion of the population under 15 years of age show a significant inverted U-shaped relationship.With the acceleration of the human capital structure and the acceleration of the urbanization process brought about by the acceleration of population movements,real estate prices should be adjusted from the root cause to promote the supply-side structural reform of the real estate industry,release the real estate industry bubble,and achieve a soft landing of the economy.Focus on sustainable development.