Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On China's Export Structure

With the continuous growth of the world's population and the continuous improvement of the health care system,aging is becoming a new global issue.China,as the largest country in the world's aging population,is in a critical period of demographic transition.The rising labor cost caused by the aging of the population has weakened China's traditional demographic dividend,which is known for its large number of cheap labor,which has subsequently led to changes in the structure of export commodities.However,there is a deep internal relationship between the trade structure and the mode of economic growth,so it is necessary to study the impact of population aging on the structure of export commodities.This article takes the structure of export commodities as the research object,measures the structure of export commodities by the proportion of high-tech product exports,and analyzes the impact mechanism of population aging on the structure of export commodities from the perspective of labor supply,human capital level and social consumption demand.The study found that the aging of the population can effectively promote the optimization and improvement of the export commodity structure,and specifically exert influence by increasing labor costs,promoting human capital accumulation,and improving the structure of social consumption demand.Through the analysis of the status quo,the article finds that the structure of China's export commodities has been continuously optimized,but there are still problems of incomplete development and regional inconsistencies.Based on the characterization of the mechanism and the analysis of the status quo,the article analyzes the overall impact and mediation effect of the aging population on the export commodity structure from an empirical perspective.This article uses the provincial panel data of China from 2004 to 2016.First,a fixed effect model is set up to analyze the overall effect of population aging,and a stability test is performed.The empirical results are consistent with the conclusions of the theoretical analysis,that is,the aging of the population has a positive impact on the optimization and improvement of the export commodity structure,and this effect is mainly achieved by increasing labor costs,increasing human capital levels and optimizing the structure of consumer demand.For the consideration of regional heterogeneity,the full sample was further divided into three sub-samples of east,middle,and west,and empirical test models were set up to further empirically analyze the regional differences in the effects of population aging on the structure of export commodities.The study found that in terms of the effect of population aging on the optimization of export commodity structure,the performance of the central and western regions was significantly better than that of the eastern region.Finally,according to the results of theoretical analysis and empirical tests,combined with China's national conditions,to carry out corresponding countermeasures and research in order to further optimize the population quality dividend and the structure of export commodities,put forward the following suggestions:(1)cultivate high-quality labor;(2)encourage export enterprises to engage in technology research and development;(3)increase the consumption capacity of the elderly and promote the upgrading of consumption structure;(4)use regional differences in the age structure of the population to promote the regional transfer and upgrading of industries.