| Since the 21 st century,China's demographic dividend has being consumed up gradually.The traditional pattern of China's economic development is unsustainable.China needs to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,and speed up the development of service industry especially producer service industry.On the other hand,under the influence of family planning policy and other factors,China has rapidly become an aging country.In this situation,studying the effects of population aging on the service industry and its internal structure can clarify the mechanism of the effect,adapt to the new situation of China's population and economic,and formulate policies accordingly to deal with the impact of population aging and to promote the development of the service industry.From the perspective of supply and demand,this paper analyzes the factors which the aging of population could make impact on,and which could influence service industry and its internal structure.On the demand side,the aging of the population will increase the consumption demand of the elderly,thus affecting the structure of consumer demand.When it acts in the service industry structure,it will promote the growth of consumer service industry and public service industry.From the view of supply,population aging will act on the service industry by changing the allocation of effective labor supply between the various sectors of the service industry.It will lead to the decline in the supply of efficient labor in the service industry,especially in the consumer service industry,thus hampering the growth of the consumer service industry which is low-skilled and labor-intensive.In addition,the aging of the population will enhance the knowledge structure and professional skills of the service industry by enhancing the proportion of experienced service industry practitioners,promoting the education,training and specializing labor's gift.So it is beneficial to the development of consumer services and producer services.In this paper,the above three effects are called: consumer demand effect,labor supply effect and human capital effect.As these three effects will change according to different conditions,so tthe strength of he three effects will be different in different circumstances.The whole effect depends on the contrast of the three effects.Furthermore,this paper uses the system GMM method to establish a dynamic panel model for China's provincial panel data from 1993 to 2014,and to carry out national and sub-regional econometrics regression.The study found that,at the national level,the effect of consumption demand has been significantly promoting thegrowth of consumer service industry and government service industry.The effect of labor endowment hindering the development of consumer services is significant only in a few regressions.While the human capital effect is also conducive to the growth of producer services.However,the human capital effect is weaker than the consumption demand effect.Therefore,compared with the producer service industry,population aging is more conducive to the development of consumer service industry.In the regional level,the more economically developed a region is,the more significant consumption demand effect is.However,the labor endowment only shows significant effect in the eastern part,which may be affected by the degree of population aging.In addition,human capital to enhance the promotion of the service industry is only significant in the east part of China.In summary,if the region is less economically developed,to a greater extent,population aging's structural effect on service industry shows out more benefit of consumer service industry,and less benefit to producer service industry.Finally,the following policy recommendations has been put forward: actively guide the development of service industry for the elderly;carefully delay the rise of service industry's labor supply cost;and steadily enhance the level of human capital to promote the development of producer service industry. |
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