The Impact Of Talent Settlement Policy On Housing Price

In the past 40 years of reform and opening up,China's real estate market has developed rapidly.This development of the real estate market is reflected in the rapid growth of housing transactions and the sharp increase in housing prices.At the same time,in response to the phenomenon of overheating in the real estate market,in order to ensure the sound and rapid development of the real estate market,China has implemented a round of real estate purchase restriction policies in the past decade.Under this situation,the market price of real estate has been effectively suppressed,and a mature system has been formed for the formulation and use of the purchase restriction policy.Since 2017,the talent-raising policies that have arisen everywhere have been aimed at absorbing talents from all over the country and have opened the threshold for talents to settle.Under this circumstance,cities that implement the purchase restriction policy will be affected by the talent settlement policy.Under this impact,the housing price and transaction volume in the real estate market will be affected.This impact is very important for cities with different development levels and housing with different attributes.Therefore,studying the impact of talent placement policies on the real estate market is of great practical significance for the healthy development of the real estate market.In summary,this paper will use the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to study the impact of talent settlement policies on housing prices in the real estate market by reading a large number of documents and selecting appropriate empirical models.This paper first summarizes the relevant theoretical foundations of the real estate market and lays the foundation for the empirical research in the following.The theoretical research of this paper is divided into three parts.The first part explains the specific concept and content of the talent settlement policy.The second part is based on the four-quadrant model,the expectation theory,the currency control policy,and the demographic structure.The specific transmission mechanism of influence;the third part,the establishment of a reasonable model through the theory of housing price changes lays a good foundation for the empirical research in the following.After the conclusion of the theoretical analysis,this paper combines the real estatemarket in recent years,the real estate market is divided into new housing market and second-hand housing market,the implementation of talent-based cities into first,second and third-tier cities,the implementation of the talent settlement policy Chart analysis.Then,through the random effect model and the double differential(DID)model,this paper conducts an empirical analysis of the short-term impact of the talent settlement policy on housing prices from the relevant real estate data of 70 large and medium-sized cities in China from January 2016 to December 2018.The empirical analysis is carried out from different city levels,different building areas,different housing attributes,and different policy tools to explore the relationship between the talent settlement policy and the housing price of the real estate market,and to use the median effect model through the annual data of the relevant cities.The specific implementation path of the impact of the talent settlement policy on the real estate market was tested.After obtaining the corresponding empirical results,the validity of the results is verified by the double difference model applicability test,PSM-DID test and counterfactual test.The results show that from the perspective of city level,the effect of the implementation of the talent settlement policy is effective.Regardless of the second-tier cities or the third-tier cities,the talent settlement policy will stimulate the growth of housing prices.For the third-tier cities,the stimulation of housing prices is more obvious;In terms of area,houses with an area of 90 square meters or more and 144 square meters or less are least affected by the talent settlement policy,while large-scale houses of 144 square meters or more are most affected by the policies.From the perspective of housing properties,the impact of the talent settlement policy on new houses is greater than that of second-hand houses,and is more significant.From the perspective of policy tools,the impact of placing affordable housing on housing prices is significant and negative.Through the test of the intermediary utility model,this paper believes that the talent placement policy partially affects urban housing prices through the intermediary variable of talent inflow In addition,buyers and real estate developers have an expectation of rising real estate market prices,which also have a positive effect on real estate market prices.Finally,based on the above theoretical analysis conclusions and the results of empirical analysis,this paper puts forward the following three suggestions: first,rationally divide thespecific population of the talent settlement policy;second,rationally formulate the strength and tools of the talent settlement policy;third,reasonable Coordinate talent settlement policy and real estate purchase restriction policy.