Study On The Spatial Differentiation Of Fertility In China's Provinces And Its Influencing Factors

The issue of fertility has received more and more attention in recent years,and scholars have gradually increased their research on fertility.However,the significant regional differences in our country is one of the more prominent national conditions.There are obvious regional differences in China regarding the influencing factors of fertility rate,the implementation effect of fertility policies,and the fertility concept of people of childbearing age.All regions in China include provinces with large populations and high fertility levels,as well as areas where populations are declining and fertility is not high.Therefore,while studying the overall fertility level of the country,we should also pay attention to the spatial differentiation of fertility rates in China's provinces.As China's total fertility rate has not yet been counted in China(except for the census year),the total fertility rate in each province(hereinafter referred to as "provincial fertility rate")is also missing,so this paper uses a curve fitting model to calculate the fertility rate in the province.Based on the calculation results,the longitudinal differentiation pattern of the fertility rate in China's provinces and its changing trend is analyzed.It is possible to conclude that the fertility rate of the provinces has gradually changed from the east to the west along the topographical ladder and slightly decreased from the southwest to other regions.Secondly,a spatial econometric analysis of the influencing factors of fertility in China's provinces was conducted,and the following conclusions were drawn:(1)The global autocorrelation of fertility in China's provinces from 2005 to 2018 showed that the global autocorrelation index of the provincial fertility rate in China was Moran's.The I index shows a slight upward trend,which indicates that there is a high positive correlation between the rustic fertility rate in China and the neighboring provinces in space.(2)According to the estimation results of the spatial panel model,the estimated coefficient of the spatial lag variable of the provincial fertility rate is about 0.96,and the significance test at the 1% level shows that the provincial fertility rate has a significant spatial dependence.(3)spatial measurement results of influencing factors of fertility rates by provinces in different regions show that the influencing factors offertility rates in the provinces in the four major regions of China(east,central,west,and northeast)are different.The eastern region is strongly affected by housing prices.The number of people affected by maternity insurance in the focal region is more obvious.The urbanization rate in the western region has a greater impact on the rustic fertility rate.The married woman of childbearing age in the northeast has a higher contraception assess,which has a more significant influence on the local fertility level.Therefore,this article suggests that the eastern region should do a good job in the management and control of housing prices,the central region should expand the coverage of maternity insurance,the western region should accelerate the urbanization process,and the northeast region should introduce corresponding policies to increase the fertility desire of local women of childbearing age.