Modeling Research On The Evolution Of Individual Viewpoint In Network Public Opinion Based On Dynamic Reference Point

Under the influence of different information interpretation and behavior choices on the Internet,the collision and merging of netizens' emotions,opinions,attitudes,etc.can easily cause network public opinion,which may affect social stability and harmony.Therefore,it is an important research topic in theory and practice to control the network public opinion crisis by studying public opinion evolution.Most scholars have explored network public opinion evolution by the method of modeling and simulation of opinion dynamics,obtaining fruitful results.However,most research premises that netizens are “completely rational”,which violates the fact that netizens may not exactly follow the established rules of the constructed models because of their personal cognition,habits,preferences,etc.in daily life.Currently,it is one of the difficulties for scholars to explore how the netizens' psychological dynamic changes influence public opinion evolution.This study discusses the impact of netizens' bounded rationality on the public opinion evolution,and constructs an opinion evolution model based on dynamic reference point from the perspective of psychology.The procedure can be briefly described as analyzing current research,introducing the theory,constructing the model,doing the experiment and making the conclusion.First,the present study explores the current public opinion evolution research at home and abroad.Then,bounded rationality is introduced to explain the results of individual decision-making and judgment.In addition,dynamic reference point explains why netizens change their viewpoints inherently.Moreover,the paper constructs the S-V model by discussing the relation between individual attitudes and individual prospect containing “Gains” and “Losses” calculated by value function and decision weighting function of prospect theory,to show the netizens' attitude changes and the trends of online public opinion.The result shows that the constructed model examined by experiments and simulation,to some extent,can predict the dynamic netizens' opinions.Finally,the study proposes practical and feasible strategies for relevant government departments from the results of experiments and simulation,which is benefit for the network public opinion management.