Analysis And Simulation Research On Network Public Opinion Evolution From Public Emergencies Based On Evolutionary Game

The evolution of network public opinion in emergencies is not only affected by the participation rate of netizens and the rate of network media coverage,but also by the level of government control.Because of the popularity of network,the network has turned into an important terrace for the public to gain and announce information,and the Internet has an important function in the expression of public opinion.But at the same time,due to the freedom of speech on the Internet,the public freely express their opinions when they are uncertain about the authenticity of the information.Their speech may further worsen the incident and even have a negative impact on social stability.In social life,when a public emergency occurs,the public will use the network platform to conduct intense discussions,and then quickly form network public opinion.In recent years,emergencies have occurred from time to time,and the public opinion generated by emergencies will be quickly disseminated through the Internet.In the process of this dissemination,the network of relationships(participation,promotion,monitoring)between various subjects(netizens,internet media,and government)is evolving more and more complex.On the one hand,netizens make subjective remarks in response to public emergencies;on the other hand,network media will take measures to promote or block public opinion events based on their own interests;on the other hand,network media will take measures to promote or block public opinion events based on their own interests.In addition,the government department plays an important role in controlling public opinion because of it’s supervision function in social affairs.Therefore,in order to clarify the game process,and to better understand the law of evolution process,this paper selects public emergency network public opinion as the research object.With the help of evolutionary game theory,system dynamics simulation method,a combination of qualitative and quantitative research is carried out on the basic of “Hong Kong Amendment Disturbance”.Through analysis,this paper hope to provide reference and reference in piloting the network public opinion,promoting the building of a warning system of network public opinion,and enhancing the government’s regulatory capacity.Through the integral conception and planning,the paper is divided into five parts:the first part introduces the research background,the significance of the topic and the current research situation;the second part is related concepts and theoretical foundations;the third and fourth parts are the focus of this paper.Among them,the third part is the construction and solution of the game model.Aiming at the participants in the evolution process,a game model is constructed,solved,and the equilibrium state of the system is mathematically analyzed.The fourth part is to simulate the evolutionary game model of network public opinion.First,this paper establishes the evolutionary game system dynamics model,combined with the case of the “Hong Kong Amendment Disturbance”,this part explores the significance of the influence of different variables on the subject’s behavior,and identifies the key influencing factors of the subject’s behavior selection in the evolution of network public opinion.The fifth part is the summary and prospect of this paper.According to the simulation results,suggestions on public opinion management and control are put forward from the perspectives of netizens,network media,and the government.Finally,the deficiencies of this paper and the prospects for future research are put forward.